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To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (47858)8/28/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53903
 
Tom, actually the situation is not that "homogeneous", I think that there are some "converts" (TXN?) that are at $60 with another forced conversion point. Also, the trading one. There are really two contradicting interests here. The holders of the converts may start and sell the stock short (or buy long term put) at a premium to their conversion price. They take their money off the table and continue to accumulate interest without having any money at stake (an infinite rate of return from here till forced conversion). If the stock then goes into one of its cyclical tail spin to well under $40 share, they can decide to undo their hedge and go back to their prior "risk position (the chance that MU fails altogether), or if they feel it is not worth their while, keep the hedge on for ever (or until redemption). MU however, would rather see these liabilities converted to equity (at a rich premium to book value, mind you) as soon as possible, IMHO, and thus their I-bankers will do what is necessary to see that happens. Whose I-bankers are more powerful is the real question. Since MU will have to go back to the well for more money in the next few years (and thus nice underwriting fees are at stake), I think we will see a major battle going on, and I am not surprised at all to see numbers in the $150 share being thrown by the "analysts" community. If it get 2/3 of the way, they achieved their goal.

By the way, I doubt we can term this a "conspiracy" (that has some real connotations), thus I just call it a "scenario" (VBG).

Zeev