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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JZGalt who wrote (8327)	8/28/1999 1:11:00 PM
From: B. J. Barron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Dave & Tom...great post and questions re aim...being someone who started out in '79 as a lt buy and hold type...ben graham and all...i believe the numbers are ok, but from my experience, i find very few who can stomach a lt buy and hold strategy...most, including me, find it difficult to even maintain a 3 to 5 year time frame...with all the st time frame thinking today, i feel that it is this type of investing ( mostly st trading) that makes AIM such a winner...as i suspect there are very few who could wait long enough for the buy and hold numbers to kick in...bj

To: JZGalt who wrote (8327)	8/28/1999 1:19:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Dave, It would appear that AIM's closer to the "trading" end of the world and you are closer to Buy & Hold in mentality. I, too, would have made many times more money with VTSS had I never sold a single share. Then again, I might not have been willing to risk as much in the first place!! After all, it was a $1.50 (split adjusted) stock that had yet to earn money when I first bought it! One more thing that might be different for me than you is that I take interest on the Cash Reserve as current income. With a salaried job, I wouldn't have to do that and also could fund the overall Cash Reserve from current income instead of having to generate it internally. In other words, personal situation has lots to do with how we customize AIM to our use. Your valuation model could be employed with AIM as far as I can see. Pick a point of valuation where it becomes practical to sideline cash and start using AIM to sell. All stocks seem to float around in valuation. That's why AIM works in the first place. If you used "vealies" during the low and first half of the average valuation times, then you could kick in AIM's selling nearer the top end. This could be used inversely for the buying. This would require great faith in the valuation model, however. Another way would be to expand the Sell SAFE range to push the SEll points out and keep the Buy SAFE at zero. For instance, you could use 40% Sell SAFE (or higher) and zero for the Buy side. This could be used in conjunction with the method mentioned above. It's the sum of the buy and sell SAFE that is mostly responsible for sizing the "Hold Zone." It would appear that confirmatory analysis is pointing you in the right direction for this. I've not fully explored the methods myself. I hope that you'd be willing to be a "guest speaker" at the First Annual AIM Convocation, SongFest and Sainthood meeting. Are you going to have to batten down before Hurricane Dennis arrives? Keep us posted! Best regards, Tom

To: JZGalt who wrote (8327)	8/28/1999 5:06:00 PM
From: steve in socal	Respond to of 18928

hey dave---as usual, an interesting post loaded with some interesting thoughts and ideas. after reading the posts on the amazon thread whre senor cheesehead gleefully fanned the flames of the uneducated and re-reading your post, i was reminded about one of the great advantages of AIM for working stiffs like me. TIME!!! i could pay big bucks and have a professional do it for me. i could dump it all in mutual funds and become rip van investor for the next ten years. but, where's the fun in that? with a $20mm company to run, a wife and two families to keep track of, golf courses to abuse, countries to visit and food and wine to consume i just don't have the time to be a real active investor stalking the various threads and trying to out-think the talking heads. so, i can do some research, find some stocks that i feel comfortable with and turn them over to AIM to manage. AIM doesn't charge me anything, doesn't second guess some of my real big "strewies", and allows me to have something to talk about with other investors who are seeking the holy grail. do i miss out on some run ups because AIM has me "selling too soon?" yup! and am i "buying too soon" when the worm turns south instead of waiting till the market or stock levels off? yup! and does that piss me off sometimes? YUP! but, it's a trade off i accept, and besides where else could i post my drivel and not be laughed and shamed off the board? just some idle thoughts from the west. busy in buffalo!