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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (8190)	8/28/1999 11:23:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Eric re<<<<a 26% decline is small....a true BEAR may bring in much more.>>>> Well a 26% loss over 14 weeks I'm sure is no picnic especially when you don't have a clue how much worse it might get. With all the complacency around people may first start to get very frightened when we break through 20% which would exceed the correction last year. A combination of buying the dips failing and the baby boomers "in for the long run" many over allocated in equities could start some panic selling if we approach and break 30% as their theories brainwashed in that the market has to go up because the boomers have to save for retirement start to evaporate. If Greenspan's concerns about the increased effect of the market on the economy prove warranted the possibility of recession creeping out from a combination of delayed reaction to Fed tightening along now with a reverse wealth effect could give a bear then the chance of being quite ugly. Since these factors would be difficult if not impossible to quantitate in advance being on the sidelines would be the only safe place to be Marc

To: E_K_S who wrote (8190)	8/29/1999 12:49:00 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Higher and Higher: Corporate Profits Continue to Escalate 11.15 a.m. ET (1515 GMT) August 28, 1999 (http://www.foxmarketwire.com/082899/wallstreet.sml) Fom the article: "...As of Friday, 495 of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index had reported their second-quarter earnings. Thanks to the continued strength of the U.S. economy and improvement in most Asian nations, profits are up 14.8 percent from the second quarter of 1998. According to First Call/Thomson Financial, 65 percent of those companies beat analysts' estimates. Over the past five years, an average of 56 percent of the companies beat estimates...." "...Mitchell J. Held, equity strategist at Salomon Smith Barney, said this past week he now expects the S&P 500 companies to earn $50.00 per share in 1999, up 12.8 percent from 1998. Held had already increased his view once this quarter, from an initial forecast of $47.75 per share to $48.85 per share...." =================================================================== The Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 11.66 for the week, to close at 1,348.27. If 1999 S&P earnings are now estimated to be $50.00 then our PE is now at 26.965. EKS