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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MGV who wrote (14033)	8/30/1999 10:11:00 PM
From: golden_tee	Respond to of 27311

<<1. It has serious cash flow problems. The cash flow situation raises serious questions about solvency and competitiveness. Solvency because they are dependent on obtaining additional financing soon to meet current obligations. They have been unable to remove financing as an issue because the record shows they have been unable to obtain sufficient financing.>> Seems to me that they have been able to raise money every time they tried. Clearly Berg and other believers will provide whatever funding VLNC needs to continue. We may see a bit more dilution until they become profitable, but THEY WILL NOT RUN OUT OF MONEY! Period. <<That fact portends greater problems. Competitiveness because, aside from meeting current obligations, it will require substantial increases in working capital simply to enter the commercial marketplace let alone additional capital for R&D. The lack of sufficient capital has been and continues to be a serious competitive weakness.>> True, but once viability is proven to an OEM's satisfaction, this will become Mooter, um, I mean moot! <<2. The competitive timeline and narrow window of opportunity for launching a battery technology that also is being developed by stronger competitors. "Stronger" being nmeasured across all phases of business: manufacturing, marketing, distribution, R&D. With no OEM sales to date and with increasing frequency of press releases from competitors regarding lith poly technology, the window is closing rapidly.>> The window is not narrowing much, since everyone who previously announced, has either pulled out, are about to pull out (you'll find out), or are back in R&D. Tell me who claims that they are shipping, and I'll tell you a story of old news. <<3. The market action on VLNC stock. The market appears to be confirming that VLNC is in danger of failing. The stock price is in a free fall. This factor alone in isolation would not be as important as it is when taken in combination with the first two factors. In light of them, it is very serious.>> Clearly those that are shorting this stock seem to focus on this last issue. The argument that since the stock price is going down, something is obviously wrong with the company is simply erroneous. The market is a simple case of supply and demand, and the shorts have been making sure that the supply exceeds the demand. This does not signal anything about internal activities. I think you should pay far more attention to insider buying than current share price. It seems you chose to ignore the massive insider buying. Please explain why the insiders just keep socking away shares and not selling? Sure seems like a bad move considering they actually do know what is happening, and we are mere speculators! Step back and appreciate the forest, stop trying to cut down the trees.

To: MGV who wrote (14033)	9/1/1999 1:50:00 AM
From: Emmo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

All good points sir, but your comments/opinions are rather shallow. All those problems are shared by all development stage companies. Hard to have a fat bank account if all your cash is getting burned by the R&D department. No shock in that area. I agree that the floorless was high risk and not in the best interest of the shareholders and is reflected in the stock price. But I think the deal with CC reflects Lev's desire to maintain control of this company. I'm certain money was available with out the floorless clause but it would come at the expense of Lev having to answer to those investors. Too much hassle, it was easier let the stock holders carry that bag of cement around while he worked on a PO. The delays should not suprise anyone if they really spent some time thinking and not listening to some of that FMK BS. (FMK is posting but just using his other alias) Developing a new battery chemistry is extremly difficult. Witness how long Lead Acid and the Alkaline batteries have been around. I don't have inside sources like others have on this thread so all I can go by is what the VLNC partners are doing. Delphi is telling the public that they will have a LiPoly battery in the near future. The Koreans say they will be selling a battery before the year is over. Alliant is signing DoD contracts for LiPoly batteries. So I can't see how the "competition" has much of a lead on VLNC if a company like Delphi hasn't yet gone commercial. Also if it was just a matter of having lots of cash to throw at the project then Delphi should have had a commercial product long ago. A new battery chemistry is not much different that a new drug. There is a ton of testing that has to be done to insure product quality and safety. Hell, everyone just thinks about products like microchips. You design and build it, zap it with some electricity to test it and send it off to Dell. With a six month product cycle for products like that it's hard for the lay investor to understand why building a stupid battery would take so long. You have to understand your investment. The stock price is in a free fall you say. I doubt it. Try looking at a stock like CAMP . Now that was a free fall. If people can't handle the stocks rather tame price action then they should be shopping CD rates. Come on, how can I really take you seriously if I bought at 5 and the stock is at 4. Even for those that bought at 11, being at 4 is like being down a few bucks at the 21 table. The dealer is showing a 4 of clubs and you're looking at an Ace. You havn't won anything but it's looking pretty good. Now when is it time to worry? How about if Delphi announced that they were dropping the LiPoly battery? Or if Korea canceled the partnership? Now those would be serious warnings and I would be kissing my money goodby. What if Sony announced shipment of a LiPoly battery in time for the christmas season? I would not be happy, but the market is large enough for many players. You don't need a monopoly to make money in this business. So if you want me to sweat, find some good stuff like when the CEO quit. But as it sits, VLNC's story has not changed, the technology is on track for introduction in the near future (within the year). The business partners are pressing forward and cash is available to them. The stock is not where I think it should be but the CC deal explains it's recent sick action. Oh, I almost forgot, the Irish government is giving them money as well. If the company is failing make a case. Show numbers, news, anything. But please, don't for a second think that just because the stock is down a few points the end is near. You've got to do better then that. Actually, what's really killing this stock is the bad karma on this *&^% thread. All the a-holes who can't say anything intelligent and love posting crap is what's really putting the brakes on this one. In fact I will bet lunch that if this thread could remain intelligent for 30 days the stock will be trading at 19.