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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (8107)	8/31/1999 12:34:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78817

Mike, welcome to cash land. As you know, I kind of did the same thing about three weeks ago, shorting a bunch of stuff against my portfolio. Those shorts just broke back above water for me in a big way today, with the internets and Citigroup getting hammered. All its going to take is a few more days like today to make that move worth my while. In my mother's accounts, I have raised about 15% more cash in the last two weeks. Last week looking at new highs in the market after the rate hike, I just could not believe what I was seeing. I still maintain what I said a month ago when I started shorting. I consider it highly likely that something bad is about to happen, and if it happens it will happen before the end of the year. Probably before the end of October. If you are ever going to market time, you've got to be thinking about it now. If you haven't read Greenspan's Friday speech yet in its entirety, go find it on the Federal Reserve web site. It is a keeper, and parts of it are just chilling if you keep in mind how careful he is with words. Read between the lines, and there is no doubt what he is saying. JJC

To: Michael Burry who wrote (8107)	9/1/1999 1:22:00 AM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78817

Mike, I'm having alot more luck with my tech stocks and special situations than in my errant efforts to pursue Buffett. (I'd probably be disgusted with investing were it not for several purchases in technology that have turned out well.) In recognition of this problem I've kept my Buffet style bets small until I am able to identify where I'm missing things. It's almost like a company with _Buffettology_ chararacteristics that is cheap enough to pass on a valuation basis has some bad momentum/bad news leaking out - but not yet fully priced into the stock. It seems best (at least in this environment) to let the thing blow up and swoop in more as a contrarian. I'm learning to be deliberate with my Buffett picks and to wait ... wait ... wait for a price. I don't know if this waiting will pay off, but it can't be much worse than buying these stocks in a downtrend. I thought I'd missed FIC, and thought you'd nailed it at a perfect price when it started back up. Problem for me now, however, is that I'll have to have the courage to jump in at some point - which is much more difficult when a stock is heading down. Don't give up on credit scoring though. My company finds that credit is a solid rating factor for auto/home insurance, and some of the new rating plans I'm seeing come out are structuring rating tiers to give a discount for clean credit. If all of the insurers start going to this way - and if the states allow this kind of scoring for insurance - there's gonna be a lot of new potential customers outside of the banking segment. Shane