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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Sphar who wrote (9220)	8/31/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Respond to of 9980

Chavez must act quickly, though. Oil prices are leading off of expectations of renewed growth in Asia. But there are indications that growth in that region is just a temporary uptick, not a prolonged upswing. So, is Stratfor's perspective of an Asian uptick being temporary in sync with others views ? Not mine. I think the recovery will be long-lasting and eventually very broad. The rise in asset prices, currencies and profitability will feed on each other. Economic, financial and banking reforms are needed but are not necessary for economic recovery to occur. The huge amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus applied during the last year makes predicting recovery a no-brainer, IMO. -Robert

To: Michael Sphar who wrote (9220)	8/31/1999 4:01:00 PM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

G'day all - hi Michael & Robert, I don't know much about oil, but I think [hope?] it will stabilize [down] but for different reasons. I am speculating that there is a bit of stockpiling against the Y2K uncertainty. Additionally, regardless of the success of the present cartel to control the production, I think it is a matter of time when Libya, Iran and Iraq rejoin the production lineup in full swing. Back to Stratfor's assertion, it would be good to see the evidence of its statement But there are indications that growth in that region is just a temporary uptick, not a prolonged upswing. i.e., what are the indications? best, Bosco

To: Michael Sphar who wrote (9220)	9/1/1999 10:23:00 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

So, is Stratfor's perspective of an Asian uptick being temporary in sync with others views? It's in sync with mine... The more I read about Japan, as well as other Asian nation's, unpreparedness for Y2K related disruptions, the more I believe that this is merely the eye of the storm passing over. I may be wrong, but I won't even consider buying emerging market funds or WEBS in any international market until next year. I can handle the opportunity cost more than the downside risk. Message 11134741 Message 11135224 I think the currency markets in Japan are being set up for a major fall... They may be unwinding some of these carry trades on the yen/dollar, but I think the majority were unwound last year after LTCM's collapse. The point being... most of the money going into the Japanese markets is quite likely money that is coming in from the US. When US investors finally start to realize the risk they are running buying the Nikkei, they will come pouring back into US T-bills. Btw, I don't think it will be pretty for the US markets either. But we are supposedly better prepared than most of the rest of the world. Btw, I am disgusted with Stratfor's refusal to incorporate Y2K in any of their economic models. I've had a few email exchanges with one of their analysts, and while not "poo-poohing" the issue, he basically said their was no way to quantify the risk... (which is BS) Regards, Ron