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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (8295)	8/31/1999 7:33:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Marc: If the economic data is stronger than expected on Friday, we will see if the third rate hike is discounted as Abby Cohen believes. The thing to key on in such an event is the long bond. Let's see how close we get to 6.25%. If the bond market stiff arms the data essentially, the stock market should be stable short term. In fact, if the data is light I see enough fuel here to bring us back to the old highs in a flash. What we do beyond that is another question.

To: marc ultra who wrote (8295)	8/31/1999 9:32:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

To try to get some insight into what Bob may be thinking and what his model may be saying I find it useful to repost part of my brief 8/21 summary post #7940 of his show in which I posted the 4 factors he said would have to improve for the bull to continue{ "To get a continued sustained bull we need 4 factors; 1)slower growth ,2)lower rates, 3)decreased inflationary expectations and 4) a firmer dollar. At the moment we have none of these things. Bob sees a 1/4% rate hike on Tuesday and October will depend on further data."} Now that we're 10 days later let's see where we are.1)as to growth I don't believe we have seen signs of slowing with most recently strong new home sales and the NAPM showing signs of a continued expansion in the manufacturing section. 2)as to interest rates if I recall correctly we had a big rally getting under 6% after the last rate hike and Fed comments that went with it but that rally has mostly evaporated now and we continue to find ourself over the 6% level with these extreme stock valuations. 3)nflationary expectations have not decreased per any data as far as I recall and today's NAPM showed increased prices paid component 4)the dollar rather than firm has continued to do poorly now falling below the 110 yen level. I'm sure I don't recall all the data of the last 10 days so I may be missing something very important. I know at some point we had a downward revision of second quarter GDP but it was felt to be secondary to inventory drawdowns and the trade deficit and many are predicting a rebound and possible re-acceleration of the economy. These are some of the things I am thinking of when I both have concern about a bear and think there is a high probability of Bob calling one which may be best assessed when the Friday data is in and we get a look at employment and the CIBCR. Friday is Aug 3rd and I see the mailing date on Marketimer is Aug 8th. Gives Bob enough time to have all the data when he writes whatever he deems appropriate in the Sept letter. That few days gap until Aug 11th when he may next be doing the show may give him the time to speak his mind regardless of what the model says. Of course since my city seems to have the honor of getting the letter 2-3 days later then everyone else the public may know before me unless I want to play guessing games<g> Marc