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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (23439)	9/1/1999 1:09:00 AM
From: Ms. X	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34824

Speaking of bonds... Here is the DJBB chart for those that need a visual on what we are talking about here. The chart reversed down in February suggesting lower bonds and higher interest rates. At that time we suggested locking in any refi's or purchases. Since then we moved down much lower and are currently looking at another reversal down on the chart. This either sets up a support base or a possible double bottom break which would suggest a continuing rise in interest rates. Right now we are negative on bonds and on a watch for higher rates. Here is the chart with comments: 107.0 ----+---X --X * -------------------------107.0 106.8 \| X O B O * 106.8 106.6 \| A O X O * 106.6 106.4 \| X O X C * 106.4 106.2 \| X O 2 * 106.2 106.0 ----+---X ----O<--Sell signal in February that put us on 105.8 \| X O interest rate watch 105.8 105.6 \| 9 O 105.6 105.4 X X O 105.4 105.2 1 O 7 O 105.2 105.0 - --X O X ----O -------------------------105.0 104.8 C 4 X O 104.8 104.6 X B O O 104.6 104.4 X O A O 104.4 104.2 X O X O 104.2 104.0-X 8 X --------4 -------------------------104.0 103.8 X O X 5 103.8 103.6 7 9 \| O X 103.6 103.4 X \| O X O 103.4 103.2 X \| O X O 103.2 103.0 X --+---------O --O ---------------------103.0 102.8 X \| \| 6<--Second sell signal in June confirming 102.6 X \| \| O even higher rates to come. 102.4 6 \| \| O Top102.4 102.2 X \| \| O X<-- Short rally, lower top, setting up for 102.0 X --+---------+---O X O -another sell signal. 101.8 5 \| \| O X O 101.8 101.6 X \| \| O X O 101.6 101.4 X \| \| O 7 O 101.4 101.2 \| \| O X O 101.2 101.0-----+---------+---O X O ------------- Med101.0 100.8 \| \| O 8 100.8 100.6 \| \| O<--Last sell signal on the chart 100.4 \| \| * O X O 100.4 100.2 \| \| * O X O 100.2 100.0 ---+---------+-------O --O<--reversal down today creating a 99.8 \| \| base or another possible double 99.8 bottom break. 99.6 Here is the bottom of the trading band-->Bot99.6 Next sell signal will be at 99.8 (can watch daily the Dow Jones 20 Bond average in the WSJ or quotes on Yahoo ^DJB) or, the chart may reverse up at 100.6 setting a buy signal at 100.8 which would be the first positive sign for bonds and a slowing down of interest rates. Even if the chart reverses up we will remain cautious until a buy signal is obtained. Something to watch for in the future, an interesting scenario... If the NYSE BP reverses up and the DJBB gives a buy signal, my impression is it would be very positive for the market. I'd even say if the DJBB gives a buy signal and the OPTI reverses up I'd be feeling positive. Y2K or not. Have a good night all.

To: Paul V. who wrote (23439)	9/1/1999 9:24:00 AM
From: Tommy Dorsey	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 34824

Paul here is something interesting for the thread. I was called by CNBC yesterday to take the negative side of a converstation between a fundamentalist and myself on Disney. The fundamentalist was bullish and they wanted to have someone on the opposite side. I was happy to do it but they weren't sure how it would go with a fundo and a tech together. They eventually decided to have a positive and negative fundo go at each other. What the call did do was to have us look at the long term trend lines of DIS and KO. We found that the trend lines had been held since early 1980 through most of this year, 1999, About 18 years. They had been the leaders of the market. This year they broker those trend lines which suggest to us that the leaders and brand names of the last 40 years are no longer the brand names and leaders of the new millenium. The New stocks are the Dell's, Sunw's, Csco's etc. When it comes to brokerage, Merrill was the brand name for the last 50 years. It is no longer the brand name for brokerage, the new millenium will see companies like E-Trade as the brand names. It would have been a good segment if I could have put this perspective on the debate it might have opened some eyes. Tom