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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (23005)	9/1/1999 7:55:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Jerome, You may want to do a little more research on what happens to earnings at various stages of the cycle before forming conclusions about relative valuation of cyclicals. Just a thought. On another topic, Zeev, following extract from a SSB INTC Research note isn't too exciting for RMBS holders... *For the first time, the company admitted it would be forced to support the PC-133 synchronous DRAM as a bridge product to future adoption of the Rambus (RMBS, NR) DRAM standard, which continues to slip. R-DRAM reviews have been lackluster and the cost, mostly due to poor manufacturing yields, are anywhere between 3-10 times higher than PC-133 S-DRAM. As a result, one DRAM manufacturer told he reduced his R-DRAM forecast for this year by 90% and next year by about 65%. For registered users, whole story at: smithbarneyresearch.com

To: Jerome who wrote (23005)	9/1/1999 7:58:00 PM
From: Darryl Olson	Respond to of 25960

Jerome, I would suggest you consider projected earnings for the next year and compare your PE ratio to the stock's projected growth rate. A stock's price is usually based on the market's (collective investors) opinion of that issue's prospects. Of course, irrational opinions can drive this either way, ie, CYMI's peak at $49 vs their trough at $6.

To: Jerome who wrote (23005)	9/1/1999 11:47:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Jerome, Basing Cymer's correct valuation on next quarter's earnings is a unique approach. The problem with this approach is that the vast majority of market participants use methods which discount the earnings(and preferably cash flow) over a much greater period of time. In using a "next quarter's earnings" method of placing a value on the stock you are betting against most of the market, which is using the traditional valuation models. I'm excluding traders in this discussion. For example, using the "next quarter's earnings" method of valuing any stock in the semiconductor or semiconductor equipment sectors would cause you to sell a stock at the bottom and buy at the top. All I am saying is that using the valuation system you have suggested does not work well for this sector in particular and most likely won't work for any stock, because you are betting against the majority and from a trading perspective "the tape". Lastly, Cymer is expected to earn $0.06 in the next quarter which is in the middle range of their guidance. It is extremely unrealistic to throw up numbers like $0.10 and $0.15. Don't get upset because a stock is not behaving as you expected. This has happened to every investor/trader. Bob