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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (24451)	9/1/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: John T.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim, the CBOE Market Stats that you posted look pretty grim. I haven't seen Put-Call Ratios this high in quite some time. I follow the CBOE Equity Put-Call Ratio especially close. Today's equity only put-call ratio of 0.89 is the highest since October 8, 1998. This indicates extreme bearishness. Here is a link to my chart of the equity only put-call ratio: home.swbell.net Notice that the 21-day EMA (red line on chart) of the equity only put-call ratio is heading upward. According to Lawrence McMillan, when the 21-day EMA peaks and turns down it is bullish and when the 21-day EMA troughs and turns up it is bearish. I think the 21-day EMA is indicating extreme bearishness. Recall that on August 6, 1999, the equity only put-call ratio spiked to 0.6246. Four days later, the market turned around and rallied. The question is: Whether the put-call ratios should be considered as contrary indicators, meaning that a rally is imminent, or whether they indicate impending doom. I know that Heinz Blasnik is good at interpreting sentiment and put-call ratios. Maybe Heinz can give us his analysis?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (24451)	9/2/1999 7:41:00 AM
From: Walt Deemer	Respond to of 99985

CHICAGO, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Business in Microsoft Corp. options surged Wednesday, boosted by some of the biggest equity options trades ever, as the four U.S. options marts went head-to-head in the issue for the first time. After midday, more than 140,000 Microsoft options contracts had traded on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) alone. In the closer months, roughly 18,700 contracts changed hands. But in options that expire more than one year out, or Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities (LEAPS), turnover soared. By the close, 56,100 January 2002 70 puts and 59,800 January 2001 62.5 puts had traded on the CBOE, where Susquehanna Investment Group is the Designated Primary Market maker. Neither LEAP had any open interest. Average daily volume last year in Microsoft options at the Pacific Exchange (PCX) was roughly 38,500 contracts. A source at Susquehanna said the huge CBOE trade of roughly 96,000 contracts total, or 48,000 on each leg of a spread, was done for a customer. "We think that was the largest equity options trade ever done on a U.S. floor," said the source. Full story: marketwatch.newsalert.com