To: Maurice Winn who wrote (7125 ) 9/2/1999 5:45:00 AM From: tero kuittinen Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 29987
Can't resist. Put me down for 20, 15, 10, djane. Maurice, don't want to offend your religious convictions - but check out the action at Voicestream (VSTR), Omnipoint (OMPT) and their main take-over targets Aerial (AERL) and Powertel (PTEL). I tagged them last January at www.debry.com as key indicators of how international roaming and industry consolidation will proceed. OMPT's 300% surge this year seems to reflect the anticipation that there will be a nation-wide GSM player in USA integrated into global GSM coverage. Of course, the American GSM coverage is nowhere near as good as Sprint's or AT&T's. But the roaming issue may become important here, that's the relevance to GSTRF. I've heard that European operators plan to push the US-Europe roaming rates under one dollar - that may be why Sonera and Hutchison have recently invested in US GSM operators. They think that Asian and European visitors could become an important revenue stream for the US operators. It all depends on how hard the operators will start pushing the worldphones. I'd keep a close eye on Vodafone's European markets. Is Voda going to give the advertizing priority to their GSM-900/1900 phones? Or is it going to position Globalstar as the best way to roam in USA? Are the current GSM roaming rates going to be cut drastically to impress consumers? It's all up in the air, but the crucial Motorola worldphone is debuting right now. If it clicks, operators and other manufacturers may stampede into this direction. Iridium and ICO may not be the main competition to GSTRF, since they don't offer substantial price or performance benefits. It may all come down to competition between Globalstar and GSM 900/1900 roaming models. If that happens, the central issue will be this: is roaming more important for people living in areas with bad mobile coverage - or people living in areas with good mobile coverage and visiting other good-coverage areas? Is the money to be made in rural areas or in the New York - Beijing - Paris - Sydney axis? Tero