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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (28415)	9/2/1999 12:59:00 AM
From: pompsander	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

One point I noticed which intrigued me was that Tate was very clear that Rambus is not cutting its royalties formula. Period. So, the council is created to design and implement ways to reduce the cost of RDRAM, yet Rambus is not directly participating (I know they are devoting massive brain power, but you know what I mean). Now, the royalties are not a huge component of total cost, but IF Rambus really felt threatened, and IF they knew this initiative was their last best way to protect their role in the memory marketplace, I bet some breakage on royalties would have been given. The symbolism would have been very important. But it did not happen. So, I have to believe the Rambus forces do not feel seriously under seige at this point. If Intel had leaned on them, you bet some ground could have been given. Apparently this did not happen. Both Intel and Rambus seem very calm and collected about this whole process, supporting the conclusion that everything is on track for Rambus' future role in Intel products and the rest of the stupid world will just have to be dragged along, sooner or later. But inevitably. JMHO

To: Dan3 who wrote (28415)	9/2/1999 1:27:00 AM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Dan, No, I don't. But it did. in high tech, that's a very long time from now and much can happen before then. We're in complete agreement here. And some of those things that can happen include RDRAM supporting a 133Mhz core to provide a 2.1 GBs transfer rate, aggressive RDRAM cost reductions driven by the seven Dramurai (I thought that was a very clever term <G>), improved yields as .18 micron processes kick in, single pass testers, etc. There're a whole lot of good things that can happen as well as the bad. And AMD has stated that Athlon will be running DDR. Since I believe Intel only allows AMD to exist to avoid anti-trust issues, I'm not worried too much about what AMD does. I haven't seen them drive any market standards yet, though I could be wrong since I don't follow them that closely. but it isn't going to have much market share next year either That opinion is based on .... what? Dell has said that RDRAM is going to be in 35-40% of their high-end systems in Q4. Dell is the market leader in corporate systems, and is still growing their market share in that space. That's just Q4. Next year it'll be even higher. Then in Q1 Compaq kicks in. Again, do you think that the availability of PC-133 has suddenly caused them to say "oops"? I'll keep repeating it for the lurkers -- PC-133 will mostly just replace PC-100 in systems that were going to use SDRAM anyway. Heck, Intel may actually implement PC-166 or PC-200 in their chipset before RDRAM finally makes it down to the lowest end systems. Especially if Via continues to push forward. But with every advance in the SDRAM technology, DRAM manufacturers can replace the RDRAM core and still get better performance. So SDRAM will still be just a short term answer. Dave