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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gc who wrote (39755)	9/4/1999 4:44:00 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

>> the number speaks for itself - 85 cents v. 75 cents is only 13% sequential growth gc, First Call lists the consensus at .87, but the pro forma results from last quarter are actually .86, so the analysts are estimating 1.2% sequential growth. Do you buy that? Frank

To: gc who wrote (39755)	9/4/1999 5:03:00 PM
From: DaveMG	Respond to of 152472

This one is indeed hard to figure it out. Parts shortage limits production. But, limited production spurs price erosion? Yes, strange indeed. But are they trying to dampen expectations a bit also? This question shouldn't be that hard to figure out really. If we all walk into our local dealers and look into what's available we might just find the answer. Just got back to NYC this AM so this is far from a large survey but went into a local Radio Shack , NO new model phones of any make, all the old stuff sitting around. Any other anectodal evidence. If there really is a shortage across all brands then it shouldn't be cause to worry......... if one is long. DMG

To: gc who wrote (39755)	9/4/1999 5:15:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

I think it is pretty clear that they will come in around .90 or a little higher. They said there was upside potential but it is limited. I think .87 is expected so I come up with .90. It's still 20% sequential growth and a pe run rate of less than 50. I don't see a problem with that at all. More number games. We are trading at a multiple of 45x expected q e x 4, (.90x4=3.60 3.60x 45 = 162).What might we expect if by November it looks like component shortages are resolved and we get a big xmas selling season, raising expectations for next q to 1.10+? Let's say the pe multiple re-expands a bit to 50, which I think it would with renewed enthusiasm. A 4.40 pace x 50 gets Q back up to 220 before year end.

To: gc who wrote (39755)	9/5/1999 10:06:00 AM
From: Harvey Rosenkrantz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

The problem with that argument is that if the Q is under margin pressure from competitors wanting to take handset market share by lowering ASP (average selling price), who do you think is the most likely to be supplying ASICs to that competitor. Since the Q currently holds about 90% of the merchant chip market in ASICs, they will make the profit in that division instead. If they do not supply the asic, they still make a royalty on the sale of the competitor's phone. So far, the Q has continually been capacity constrained on handset production due to their internal ability to assemble those little beauties. Perhaps now their constraint is that they can't get enough parts to keep the lines going full blast. I would assume that the parts shortage is not unique to the Q, thus limiting production worldwide thereby mitigating price erosion.