Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (6016)	9/6/1999 7:22:00 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

Lindy, Tony V., Unq & thread.....thoughts on Intel.... Great post Lindy.. INTC: I pronounced this company dead in February, it has gone from 66 to 89 since then. Pretty good for a dead guy! Up almost 48% for the year. The trailing PE of 45 looks low by today's standards, ( I bought it in '95 at 14!!), but seems to be the best PE that the street will give it. Intel's trailing P/E is high; but I wonder if P/E doesn't shift with the Market's expectations for a company's future prospects. Using Baseline's company profiles from Etrade(current for Aug 25th), Intel's P/E has moved upward since 1994. The P/E in 1994 was 15; sequential years saw the P/E high at 23,31,29,38, and 41 this year. The same is generally true for MSFT; since 1994, yearly P/E highs are: 33, 48, 48, 60, 73, 83. For CSCO, yearly P/E highs are: 45, 47, 48, 43, 79, 94. When I look at this, I see 2 things: first, I think the market is capable of awarding a higher P/E to Intel, and I further think this is very likely to happen as revenues begin to grow from higher profit margin arenas, chiefly penetration into Server microprocessors, network chips, profits from VC investments in Internet start-ups, etc. Pronouncing Intel as dead (or in my business, not dead but moribund) would be prescient had it stayed exclusively in PC-microprocessors. But like MSFT, INTC is expanding its boundaries, with fingers into everything. Second, being a worrier, I worry that the P/E expansion in the past 2 years for the gorillas will come back to bite us, somehow. Unq has said that he doesn't like INTC in part because he doesn't like cyclicals. If INTC can shift substantially into other territories (does anyone here want to bet against INTC management?), then I would think revenue streams from an ever widening array of niches would lesson the cyclical nature of PC-microprocessors. Best to the Thread, Apollo

To: LindyBill who wrote (6016)	9/7/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: Nichols	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Your comments concerning INTC and CSCO were amusing. You wouldn't buy CSCO at current PE? Well, following that logic, you would have been out of CSCO for sometime now. INTC PE high. Huh?? Out of the three (I own em all) it appears to me that MSFT would be the biggest gamble-their fate, for right now, is out of their control. ALthough I certainly agree with you that once DOJ finishes look for it to race. As for the Q, (now my largest holding)I'm just waiting for China and the Almighty(hah) T to fall. At any rate, The 4th quarter should be gangbusters for all of us gorilla investors. Happy hunting.