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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (6024)	9/6/1999 10:06:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Apollo, your post on Intel, nice research into P/E trends, and I do agree with the overall post a lot. I agree with you about P/E's not having to be stuck in a trench. Look at SUNW...they've caught MSFT, where they used to be more like Intel, i.e., in the 15s to 25s. It's the Internet, kids. Get associated with it in a big way and new paradigms happen. Unq has said that he doesn't like INTC in part because he doesn't like cyclicals. If INTC can shift substantially into other territories (does anyone here want to bet against INTC management?), then I would think revenue streams from an ever widening array of niches would lesson the cyclical nature of PC-microprocessors. I don't consider Intel, or any non-DRAM semi companies, cyclical at all. TI, Altera, Xilinx are no more cyclicals than Sun or the boxmakers. Classic cyclicals are metals, machinery, paper, etc. Have to run, looks like this thread may get some diversification from, what's that Q-something or other company? <g> Tony

To: Apollo who wrote (6024)	9/6/1999 10:12:00 AM
From: voop	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

The P/E in 1994 was 15; sequential years saw the P/E high at 23,31,29,38, and 41 this year. The same is generally true for MSFT; since 1994, yearly P/E highs are: 33, 48, 48, 60, 73, 83. For CSCO, yearly P/E highs are: 45, 47, 48, 43, 79, 94. Interesting to note the steady stream of increasing trailing PE's for the Gorillas. This has to be worrisome, unless P/E ratio is not the tool to value gorillas, much like PSR's help evaluate cyclicals but are out of whack for tech stocks. So, what is the best tool, asking all threadmates, price to cash flow or future P/E's or something else?