There's more to this train of thought...
Right now there's a divison of the market based on server OS. Microsoft owning it's portion, Unix/Linux, NetWare et al the rest. Here's an interesting thought - right now, the potential market for Actice Directory is limited to the Windows NT market right?
We'd see this market segment first implement Active Directory than companies going wholesale for their current network into a Windows2000-based one. See that type of migration can be very costly and lengthy. It's much easier to migrate from Windows NT4 than say Unix at this time. Even if MSFT can make a case for that migration, the return on that investment will take longer than a Win NT 4 network.
Well, if that's the case, the the market for Active Directory can only top out at the current levels of the Windows NT market with some consideration for the brave souls who jump wholesale into the Windows2000 OS. I don't see that as being 100% of the market even potentially.
NDS while constrained somewhat in the NetWare market these past few years is begining to see a cross-over into other segments. NDS for NT, NDS for Solaris, NDS for Linux and even NDS for (IBMs) AIX are all viable markets for NDS. Thus it would be valid to say that the potential market for NDS is all of the above? Potentially 100%? Ok, can we say more than the NetWare share of the market in the least?
It wouldn't be a far jump for companies using these other OSes to add NDS into the mix and we well enough know that 83% of all Fortune 100 companies already use NetWare and NDS.
In the Active Directory scenario, there is no "product" for other operating systems. Companies have to migrate to MSFT's product to get it (and then some).
Now, here's another thought:
MSFT's "window of opportunity" for it's Active Directory is directly related to Novell's ability to move an NDS for Windows2000 product out the door. Once this happens, the whole ballgame changes.
Why?
Well, with NDS runnning on a Windows2000 network, we can directly test the capabilities of each system fairly. By fairly I mean that we could mirror 2 network systems (albeit in a test lab), install and configure Windows2000 in a like manner. One system would incorporate NDS for Win2000 while the other would use Active Directory.
We could then put each system through some basic and complex tests of scalability, reliability and performance. These tests would be measured and the results would fairly depict the capabilities of each system.
Sure we could nitpick certain things like no 2 pieces of hardware are the same but that wouldn't factor heavily into the results. The differences would be less IMHO.
When this happens, minds will change - opinions will turn. Maybe news like this will also help:
Novell, Compaq team on services
By Scott Berinato and Mary Jo Foley, Sm@rt Reseller, PC Week
September 7, 1999 10:50 AM PT
URL: zdnet.com
Novell Inc. and Compaq Computer Corp. today extended their 12-year relationship to broadly integrate Novell Directory Services into Compaq's hardware and software.
Specifically, Novell (Nasdaq:NOVL) will port NDS to Tru64 Unix, and Compaq (NYSE:CPQ) will support NDS on all platforms on its ProLiant, ProSignia and Alpha servers. Compaq will also ship Novell's ZENworks desktop management software as part of its desktop and workstation computers. In addition, NDS will be integrated with Compaq's Insite Manager network management software.
Broad cross-service and support agreements are also part of the deeper relationship, officials of both companies said.
"This will be the first 64-bit port for NDS," said Compaq Senior Vice President Enrico Pesatori during a conference call.
Pesatori and other Compaq executives emphasized NDS' cross-platform availability as one of its major selling points for customers with heterogeneous environments.
Novell, for its part, is pushing the scalability of Compaq's Alpha-based servers as the ideal platform for delivering enterprise-level NDS-enabled applications.
"We think the Tru64 NDS implementation may become a mainframe alternative," said Eric Schmidt, Novell's CEO.
"Customers are deploying NDS but complaining they don't have it on every platform," he said.
Schmidt noted that Novell already has demonstrated the ability of NDS version 8, code-named SKADS, to handle up to 1.6 billion transactions on Intel platforms. "On Alpha, we expect this to be quite a bit higher," Schmidt said.
Compaq and Novell will also develop an application with Compaq's upcoming SSL acceleration card in which NDS will automatically forward security tasks to the card, where they can be processed faster on silicon than they could otherwise in software.
The port of NDS to Tru64 Unix will occur early next year, officials said.
Chris Stone, senior vice president at Novell in Provo, Utah, said the deal was a year in the making and caps a year in which the number of ISVs and partners for NDS rose from a dozen to nearly 200.
Modesto revisited?
The Compaq-Novell NDS development comes on the heels of announcements by Microsoft Corp. and Sun Microsystems Inc. last week of their latest timetables for supporting Intel Corp.'s forthcoming IA-64 processor. Both Microsoft and Sun reiterated that they will have 64-bit Intel-based versions of Windows and Solaris, respectively, ready to ship whenever Merced does.
Novell, meanwhile, is rethinking how and when it should release a full 64-bit implementation of NetWare, a company spokesman said. Earlier this year, Novell officials outlined the company's plans for 64-bit NetWare, code-named Modesto, which Novell promised would ship simultaneously with Merced.
Intel is expected to ship Merced in the latter half of 2000.
"We initially said we'd have a full 64-bit OS," said the Novell spokesman. "Now we're adopting more of an appliance approach. We'll come out with a 64-bit caching server, a 64-bit directory server ... ultimately, we'll have all of the components of a 64-bit OS."
He said Novell was revisiting its 64-bit plans because the company decided customers really didn't need a 64-bit print server.
Novell is at www.novell.com. Compaq, of Houston, is at www.compaq.com. |
