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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PJ Strifas who wrote (28031)	9/8/1999 9:20:00 PM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Peter, You touched on a point that MSFT is quietly dreading and NOVL is quietly chomping at the bit for. Most might think that NOVL management is dreading the eventual release of MSFTs active Directory. In fact, they are impatiently waiting for MSFT to release their lame-duck AD product. For the exact reason that you touched on - the minute that MSFT releases a "production" version of Active Directory, NOVL's minions will pounce on MSFT's product and compare the inadequacies of AD versus the several fold more mature, scalable, and multi-platform rich NDS. MSFT is not stupid. They know full well that NOVL's strategy is to pounce on MSFT's immature A.D. product as soon as it leaves the door. That is why it will likely not be seen in the initial release of Windows2000 (IMO). MSFT does not want an easy-to-target sub-component of Windows2000 to discredit its entire OS release. It is analogous to a schoolyard where the weakling knows that the stronger, bigger bully is out in the playground waiting for him to fight. The Weakling stays in the school as long as possible to avoid the inevitable (being beaten up by the bully waiting for him). In fact, if there is one point that I did like from Slitz, he said that "They are not scared of MSFT and A.D., they can't wait for MSFT to release it. NOVL will not get into a bun-fight with a non-released product. But once its released, NOVL will kick its marketing on NDS vs AD into high gear" (paraphrase from Slitz during his Global Partners Summit in January). Personally, it will be like shooting fish in a barrel for NOVL. A.D. is still based on domains! MSFT was to chicken to make the extremely tough leap from their old non-scalable domains to a scalable new-generation directory services structure. This decision will cost them in the enterprise and Internet markets where scalability IS A MUST! The NOVL Evangelists and Engineers will have a field-day comparing NDS to Active Directory. ONE BIG WARNING FOR NOVL - IF YOUR READING THIS BOARD.... "Dont let MSFT turn the Directory Services technology into a Commodity like they fooled everyone about the NOS being a commodity!" My prediction regarding how MSFT will is attempt to market its Active Directory against its clearly superior competitor (if I were MSFT) is to convince the industry that a directory is a directory is a directory. So, why not use a directory that is better tied into your application servers and desktop environment? NOVL must do everything in its marketing power to counter this Directory Services Commoditization Strategy that MSFT successfully played against NOVL in the NOS battles. MSFT bamboozled the industry into thinking the NOS services are a commodity when they absolutely are not. NetWare's file/print NOS server is several times more functional, powerful, and reliable than an NT server (tests and reviews constantly proves this). But MSFT made many in the industry forget these critical "speeds & feeds" factors between the two NOSes. This leveled the playing field for MSFT's weaker NT vs NOVL's much more mature and powerful NetWare. The rest was history. NOVL - Don't let history repeat itself!! Toy

To: PJ Strifas who wrote (28031)	9/8/1999 10:15:00 PM
From: Jack Whitley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

<<We'd see this market segment first implement Active Directory than companies going wholesale for their current network into a Windows2000-based one. See that type of migration can be very costly and lengthy. It's much easier to migrate from Windows NT4 than say Unix at this time. Even if MSFT can make a case for that migration, the return on that investment will take longer than a Win NT 4 network.>> Correct me if I'm wrong on this, but I have read that to even take full advantage of the limited features offered by Active Directory, that every desktop will have to be migrated to Windows 2000 Workstation as well. Contrary to what you have read, NT Workstation is probably being used on about 5-6% of the desktops in corporate America (everyone else Win 95, some Win 98). I wonder if the market understands what is going to be required of corporate America to upgrade to the latest iteration of Windows, when it is ultimately shipped. MSFT may have to give away the desktop to get people to migrate. They may really be painting themselves into a corner this time. jww