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Technology Stocks : MEMC INT'L. (WFR -NYSE) The Sleeping Giant? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: All Mtn Ski who wrote (4503)	9/9/1999 3:11:00 PM
From: Scotsman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4697

Fab capacity shortage looms By Craig Matsumoto EE Times (09/09/99, 11:51 a.m. EDT) SANTA CLARA, Calif. — Shortages in fab capacity could begin to surface for 0.18-micron and 0.25-micron production during the next few years as a result of capacity cutbacks during the semiconductor industry's last down cycle, according to a new industry report. While overall capacity will actually exceed demand until 2003, supply will outweigh demand at larger line widths, particularly at the 0.35-micron level, said Joanne Itow, an analyst with Semico Research Corp. (Phoenix). "In the overall market it looks fine — there's plenty of capacity. But it's not necessarily the line width you're looking for," she said. "There's still a lot of 0.8- and 1.0-micron capacity out there," while the industry favors finer line widths. Overall wafer demand should grow 4 percent this year and will grow at an 11 percent clip per year through 2003, said Itow, who gave her projections for semiconductor-industry capacity during Semico's forecast workshop, held here on Wednesday (Sept. 8). A future shortage at smaller line widths would be the endgame to the capacity cuts made in 1997, when it was becoming clear that the semiconductor downturn would be severe. The 0.25-micron level "was the generation they were supposed to be building for," Itow said. Additionally, the recovery in chip sales hasn't led to a glut of fab construction because the strength of foundries is changing the business model of integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), Itow said. "The IDMs are pretty much abandoning the megafab philosophy, and they're planning on utilizing foundries for their needs," she said. Capacity for 0.18-micron manufacturing could be served by 2003 if companies begin ramping or restarting fab projects, Itow said. The more dramatic problems could arise for 0.25-micron designs, however, because companies aren't likely to start up fabs — now considered $2 billion projects — for anything but cutting-edge technology, Itow said. Some 0.35-micron fabs could be upgradable to 0.25-micron, but not all of them, she said. At the same time, Semico expects most system-on-a-chip activity to aim for the 0.25-micron level, increasing demand at that level, Semico analyst Rich Wawrzyniak said. "There are all these pressures that will still be put on 0.25-micron capacity in the next year," Itow said. "There might not be as clear cut a solution" as for 0.18-micron, she said, speculating that some companies might even have to consider skipping the 0.25-micron generation and go straight to 0.18-micron parts.