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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (1912)	9/8/1999 4:45:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Hi Kerry J. Carmichael; The charts that show price action for 1999 versus 1929 are not the ones I find indicative of a big problem coming up. The market does run up from time to time, but how badly we can hurt ourselves in a fall depends on how high we fall from. In order to guage this, I think you need to look at the price/book charts, or perhaps the price/sales charts of just the manufacturing companies. Judging when the market is going to quit going exponentially up, and actually turn over for the last time is harder. The chart comparison I'd like to see would include ratio of new highs to new lows, other breadth indicators, etc. Another think I'd like to see is would be some indication of how much cash is available to be thrown into the market. Normally wrecks happen when mutual fund cash is at or near record lows. But I'd like to see how much cash the individual investor has. Maybe the place to look would be in the series over on the St. Louis federal reserve site... My ex keeps wavering between wanting to buy the latest overpriced internet IPO, and putting all her assets into cash in preparation for Y2K. I guess that a lot of people are going to dump out of stocks for the new year. There will probably be some good buying opportunities in late December, early January. Motto: Try to avoid panic. But if you must panic, try to do it before everybody else does. -- Carl