To: John Mansfield who wrote (8571 ) 9/8/1999 4:37:00 PM From: C.K. Houston Respond to of 9818
Will Consumer Fear of Y2K Computer Malfunctions Cause Panic Purchasing or Petroleum Product Distribution Problems? August 1999 Issue Paper - Report Prepared for the American Petroleum Institute -EXCERPT Stockpiling by individual consumers is unnecessary, but in any case stockpiling by individual consumers is unlikely to cause shortages or other severe problems . Stockpiling in autumn to be secure in winter may be sensible for the most risk-averse consumers. For most consumers, stockpiling in autumn for winter consumption risks a higher average cost of fuel for a small increase in energy security. [SEE BELOW] All consumers should be skeptical of advice to buy new fuel-using or fuel-storage equipment as protection against Y2K problems. [But it's OK if large businesses, military and government does it.]api.org HEATING BILLS EXPECTED TO SOAR THIS WINTER WASHINGTON (September 7, 1999 - After several years of modest costs, heating bills are expected to rise significantly this winter because of higher oil and natural gas prices and increased demand, the Energy Department said Tuesday. Consumers got used to unusually low heating costs during the last two winters because of depressed oil prices and mild weather. This year is expected to be different, government energy experts said. "Residential heating oil prices, like all petroleum product prices, are expected to increase by a hefty amount this winter ," the Energy Information Administration said in its latest short-term energy outlook report released Tuesday ... Residential heating oil on average could be 30 percent higher than last winter and residential natural gas prices about 17 percent higher, the agency projected. EIA economist David Costello said the higher prices stem mostly from the fact that crude oil prices have increased $7 to $8 a barrel since last winter - up to about $19 in August - and are expected to rise above $20 a barrel throughout the upcoming winter ... Natural gas prices at the producer level, also have increased and likely will be about 43 percent higher at the wellhead this winter, although they may ease a bit in the second half of the winter as supplies increase, the agency said. "Not only are we projecting higher crude oil prices this winter, but we are also assuming 'normal' weather, which would be colder than the relatively mild weather of last winter ," said the EIA report. This is expected to create more demand for heating oil and natural gas and push up prices ... Concern about the Y2K computer glitch also may push up heating prices as customers - residential and industrial may try to stock up to avoid possible shortages in case of a computer problem in the supply system, energy analysts said [...]nando.com