To: Just G who wrote (143 ) 11/17/1999 2:22:00 PM From: Ptaskmaster Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 529
An interesting discussion of Russian control and manipulation of their Pd and Pt exports in David McKay's excellent, long article: "Platinum gains forecast to hurt China "The focus of Johnson Matthey's interim industry review dwelled, somewhat predictably, on the shortage of platinum supply from Russia for the third successive year. ----snip--- "It is not clear how long it will take for the Chinese jewellery sector to adjust to higher prices. ----snip---- "Overall, platinum jewellery demand is growing everywhere:... Even if the pattern were not one of exponential growth, it would take much more to upset platinum's party owing to the absence of Russian shipments. "Russian government struggles to contend with legislation "One of Coombes' more intriguing statements in his presentation of Johnson Matthey's interim review on Tuesday was the suggestion that the hold-up in Russian platinum shipments might be deliberate. Russian exports of platinum have been severely hampered by legislation passed in late December 1998 which contained a provision – Clause 19 – restricting the export of pgm to specially authorised state organs. But official exporter Almaz, nor any other Russian organisation, fits this bill. Coombes suspects political manoeuvring to gain control of the metal stockpile. "Oddly enough, Clause 19 is a minutiae of a law passed to fulfil certain International Monetary Fund demands. Coombes says the clause was ignored for several months, but was then suddenly seized on or, in his words, "brought to the fore". Certainly, there appears to be a retroactive move against Russia's private sector to control the export of pgm. Noril'sk, a nickel company which produces pgm as a by-product, was granted a 10-year quota for palladium exports. It was thought this quota covered other pgm but this is not the case. There is also some uncertainty as to whether Noril'sk is to keep its palladium quota. The situation has become so bad that Russia is now expected to export well below initial expectations of 800 000 ounces this year. "The outcome is that total platinum supply in 1999 is expected to fall by 6% to 5,1-million ounces, therefore demand is expected to exceed supply 530 000 ounces....There is also supply coming in from US strategic stockpiles, built up from the onset for the Cold War. Assuming the Russian rejoin the market, the platinum price is expected to range in the $370 to $440/oz trading band." By David McKay, Mining Web.196.36.119.130