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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (61549)	9/13/1999 7:52:00 PM
From: re3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

heinz i still figure that many will withdraw funds in the market on a just in case basis for y2k, but maybe it is 'priced in'...i hate to think that, but nothin' has pulled this market down (yet)...maybe the y2k bears will get 'faked out' ??? i guess that might be in the form of a spec blowoff with or without regard to y2k... i like the sell of a generation comment. but i was shocked to hear his timing of it...i did mention another letter who agreed we were in a frenzy but said it could take a few months to fully play out... who knows...and one thing's for sure...we are gonna have some interesting months ahead either way ike

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (61549)	9/13/1999 9:39:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

I like his timing -- Jan or Feb 2000 for the real crash -- I mean the second leg down to tell everyone it is Kaput!! But I agree that his bull market starting in '98 is idiotic ...

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (61549)	9/14/1999 12:49:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

Heinz, From your post 61549: << obviously it is utter nonsense to say that a new bull market began last october. note that a/d and NH/NL NEVER got back to bull market status in the current upleg.>> I disagree on this point and suggest that the greatest bull market in our generation began just as this one has, and after the first leg up ended, the A/D line took out the bear market A/D low, as seen on this chart: decisionpoint.com Notice the similarities.... The preceding bear market ended 4/1/80, followed by a nearly vertical 45% rally. Our prior bear mkt. began in early Oct. 97, kicked off by the largest one day drop ever, then completed on 10/8/98 with a 20% collapse from the 7/20/98 highs... which was followed by a nearly vertical 45% rally in the S&P. Both periods then spent months topping after the 45% rally before a strong wave of selling took hold, breaking the A/D line below the bear mkt. bottom in both cases. The intitial wave of selling was followed by a strong rebound, which crested in early Dec of '81, and in our case crested late last month. I expect the same type of action in the current multi-month sell-off as we saw from the Dec.'81 rebound high to the eventual 1982 bottom. But please note that 82's low did not take out 4/80's low, and was an obvious Wave 2 retracement of that 45% rally. Thus, we will not take out October's lows in the major indices, and maximum move limitations based on the topping action since 4/13/99 say we can not and will not break 1150 SPX. We are progressing through the pattern at twice the speed of the predecessor, and I have us pegged at a point comparable to 2/1/99, at the top of another rebound rally. Once that bottom is in... THEN we get the SUPER BLOW-OFF move you and I've been looking for. For a prelude, just take a peek at the move off the '82 bottom... WOW!!! FWIW & IMO, BRH