To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (142025 ) 9/14/1999 8:49:00 PM From: kemble s. matter Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 176387
Frank, Hi!!! RE: What is wrong with DELL? IMO investors have gained a perception of DELL kicking ass every quarter...and of course for umpteen qts. they did...DELL spoiled the impatient...And, then there were the two flat qts. where mostly everyone felt DELL was "slowing down"...During these "slowing down quarters" I have written many posts that express my opinion on the strategy I believe DELL was using to destroy CPQ...I believe it cost us a few pennies each qt. and thus the continuing streak of 50% plus quarters...One thing that I have learned is CPQ surely isn't in any position to challenge DELL any time soon...And, from what I have gathered they "may not survive"...Personally, I'll take two flat quarters any time to knock the #1 PC manufacturer from the top...I believe that DELL targeted CPQ ("any failure of the CPQ acquisition with DEC would be like handing DELL the keys to the kingdom") And, perhaps knowing that an IBM deal was imminent and if successful in destroying CPQ where would we find anyone to ever challenge DELL in the future? If this case scenario comes true...we won't be able to count all the $$$ we'll make....DELL would truly be unstoppable...Unstoppable as in IMMEDIATELY unstoppable....This "dream strategy" is why I have attempted to predict a market share of 50% in five years...Gateway? HWP? No chance..."We can leverage our model against anyone we wish to target"..tm Or notice how Michael tells us today: "OUR COSTS ARE ABOUT HALF THAT OF OUR COMPETITORS, SO WE HAVE A STRUCTURAL ADVANTAGE," AND THE INTERNET IS ACCELERATING OUR (MARKET)SHARE GAINS"..Heck, Frank...Michael is the nicest guy in the world...What he really just told us today is DELL is beating the piss out of anyone in their path...the game is over...IMO this is "CHECKMATE"... Some may question why I dream like this? Well certainly phrases keep sticking in my mind that didn't make sense once upon a time...And, I have come to realize that if I'm patient I'll figure most of them out...And get rich in the process.. :o) One of the more recent quote's that I believe I finally figured out was when Michael was actually warning us... "PAIN TO CAUSE MUCH PAIN"...I remember reading this and thinking: "what's he talking about here?" Damn, he was right huh? ;o) During this "pain" I look back even further and I find him telling us that "WE FIND IT AMUSING" that CPQ is attempting to go direct...well at the time I don't believe we all thought the PAIN would be a 40% drop...but let's face it...This was the largest drop for DELL since 93? I believe we've all had our share of the "pain"...Hopefully one of these two "pain" scenarios are continuing...Our "pain appears" to be over.. Yet,I believe the "pain" for someone is just beginning...If this strategy was successful and I believe it was...we should soon find out with some numbers in the next few quarters...I am especially anxious to hear how our downstate rival is doing this quarter... I believe we will once again bound above the 50% for this quarter which will tell everyone that DELL is once again proving they are the DELL we all grew too complacent watching... Also, I believe the announcements during the last two to three months to be very bullish...Especially the ones we learned during the DELLCONNECT week and the one yesterday concerning B2B...Couple these new revenue areas with a possible IBM walk don't run deal...Read about all the hiring and expansion that DELL is doing...Or take the words of the management: Kevin Rollins told everyone the day after the 1st qt. earnings that: "those that sell DELL will be sorry"...or more recently when Kevin Rollins told us that he saw DELL growing at 40%+ for some time to come and didn't see any problem with them being able to achieve this until some resistance may occur at around 24% of the world wide market...Frank, I believe the signs are all over the ground...I have stated many times I tooooo can't believe that more do not see what I seem to have painted for me...As a matter of fact it's a dot to dot child's photo IMO...DELL is NOT slowing down...DELL is definitely NOT the same DELL as before...the DELL engineers and employees have worked feverishly to rid DELL of this box label...DELL is NOT in any way losing market share...DELL is the next DELL...And just in case we need to hear this one more time...we should remember what Tom Meredith told me (after I had attempted to explain some of the revenue growth positions that I saw DELL developing): "Yes, Kemble you are correct...What most folks haven't figured out yet is DELL is just getting started in here." Frank, I'm a very very very impatient person...Ask my friends.. ;O) But, I surely see what DELL has been planning...It takes a long time to plan for huge plans that will continue to grow this company at 50%+ growth...I also believe DELL is deceiving us... :O) Kevin's "40%+" is an excellent example...I believe DELL will be able to exceed this for qts. and qts. to come.. Best, Kemble