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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25800)9/14/1999 5:55:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
heinz, an interesting bit of news re your stmt-

and unions begin to press for higher wages (also happening already), corporations will be forced to raise prices.

Read this in the LA Times this week-end -

Saturday, September 11, 1999 

Bill Passed to Ban Warehouse Sales of Foods, Drugs

Retailing: Groceries would be restricted at new 'big-box' stores
such as Wal-Mart and Costco. Proponents contend the measure
is intended to protect markets.
By MAX VANZI, Special to The Times


SACRAMENTO--In a last-minute
action that Wal-Mart and Costco
described as a crippling sneak attack
against warehouse retailers, the state
Legislature this week passed a bill that
would effectively prohibit sales of
groceries and prescription drugs in new
branches of such "big-box" stores.
Although the measure would allow the
companies to maintain sales in existing
warehouse outlets, industry
representatives, hoping Gov. Gray Davis
will veto the bill, said the ban could
ultimately drive them out of California. A
spokesman for Davis said the governor
has not taken a position on the bill.
The stores trade in high-volume items
for home and small-business consumers,
often at wholesale prices, and set aside
large sections for food shelves, fruit and
vegetable displays, meat cases and
pharmacies.
Proponents said the bill's primary aim
was to protect neighborhood businesses,
including mom-and-pop Korean-owned
grocery stores in low-income sections of
Los Angeles, from being "devoured" by
big-box competitors.
The bill's author, Assemblyman Dick Floyd
(D-Wilmington), who also had powerful support from
organized labor and supermarket chains including Safeway
and its subsidiary Vons, said the warehouse stores need to
be contained "before these bastards take over the whole
country."

Costco Chairman Jeffrey Brotman, in a telephone
interview from company headquarters near Seattle,
countered that two-thirds of Costco's volume is sold
wholesale to small retail businesses. "We're not driving
Korean grocers out of business," he said. "We're helping
them stay in business."
But, Floyd said, because of the expanding big-box
industry, "you can no longer find a clothing store, a
stationery store or a hardware store" catering to
neighborhood residents in low-income urban areas like his
southern Los Angeles County district. Brotman said Costco
intends to double its 85 stores in California in five to 10
years. But he said "if this bill [becomes law], we're out of
business" eventually in the state. Wal-Mart operates 110
stores and 24 similar Sam's Clubs in California.
Specifically, the bill prohibits local governments from
granting business licenses to retail stores of more than
100,000 square feet if more than 15,000 square feet is used
for nontaxable items--that is, most foods and prescription
drugs.
With plans to build units of up to 150,000 square feet,
said Costco Senior Vice President Joel Benoliel, Costco
could not profitably sell food and drugs in only 10% of that
floor space.
He called the Floyd bill "the Pearl Harbor of legislation"
for its surprise attack on the industry. In classic late-session
fashion for special interests, the bill materialized suddenly
three days before the Legislature was to adjourn for the
year, then in 48 hours short-circuited a process that
normally takes weeks or months and passed in both houses
by bare majorities.
The real powers behind the bill, industry opponents said,
were labor unions and conventional supermarkets politically
allied with the Democratic leaders of the two houses.
Wal-Mart's 40,000 California employees are nonunion;
of Costco's 23,000 workers in California, 9,500 are
members of the Teamsters union, company officers said.


Copyright 1999 Los Angeles Times. All Rights Reserved

Now, I went to Costco yesterday and asked a manager what he knew about this. He didn't know anything <g> but I found this out -
The oldest Costco stores have union workers, but the new ones planned to be opened next year will not be unionized and the employees/management do not want them to be unionized.

So, basically, the union is blackmailing the big discount food chains.
Who are the true bastards?



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25800)9/14/1999 6:00:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
Good posts all. I will take issue one matter. As for the individual investor thinking he can do better than the pros, I think I understand your meaning in that you refer to the average J6P who buys AOL and never looks back and will hold for the long term. However I think those on this thread do understand the market better than the "professional". The "heads" of mutual funds wander from convention to convention and spend all daygetting wined and dined by potential CEOs of companies that want institutional investment. This leaves the kids to actually do the investing/trading. I have read numerous articles and seen many shows that disclose the person who is actually controlling the fuinds is typically a kid right out of college or else has about 5 years total experience in the market. None of them have ever seen a bear market or a "correction" that didn't bounce back in 3 months.

It is like a friend of mine was saying a while back in frustration. "My system used to be perfect, I never lost. I must be doing something wrong because the last year all I do is lose." He didn't understand that for the last 14 years, all you did was throw a dart at the Wall Street Journal and buy whatever it hit and you won. Now there are only about 200 stocks out of the tens of thousands that exist that are above where they were last year.

As for when it will drop, I am hoping you are right about the blow off top but I am getting mroe and more nervous as time goes by. The news is getting worse and so are the market internals. Normally this would be the time to buy because the news couldn't get much worse and I equate the news lately to last October. The only problems is we haven't dropped like we normally would have. There is no fear, no capitulation, no real selling. Short interest is low, the put call ratio is low considering the internals of the market and out of all the fast burner stocks I track, almost all were up today. MU, MSFT, CTXS EBAY etc. I find it hard to beleieve we will rally without someone dropping this at least temporarily to get the J6P money first and we need some sort of capitulation. I am seriously starting to think we are repeating last years pattern with just a few twists on the chart. A honky dory everything is fine appearance until the big drop comes with no warning.

It is dangerous to be on eithger side now long or short. Notice the huge swings on the OEX the last couple days in the last hour, more so yesterday. A normal day is about 5 points through the course of a day, the last couple days there have been swings of at least half that in seconds. Volume is low and because of this, they are able to swing things strongly at will. I believe no one knows where this is going anymore, even the big money. I see money being taken off the table in defensive moves and being re-allocated to the bigger more fluid names like before. No one wants to be short, yet no one wants too much exposure long unless it is a volume stock they can dump out of quickly.

Your call for a blow off could still come as I have read article after article about how funds are more cash than ever, this sideways market has been going for month s now so even though fund inflows have slowed or reversed, the new money is piling up from non use thus there is a hoard of cash waiting to do something, anything when the all clear is given. Normally this would be put into bonds until it was decided to move it to stocks, but the bond is weak so no buying there either. There is a mountain of cash that will either blow this thing up to the stars or else remain on the sideline and get spent on puts as the market finally capitulates. I think it will all be decided based on tomorrow's report though as Don said, it will be a delayed reaction due to options unwinding and may not move hard until next week although, the institutions have been unwinding earlier lately and have usually been done by Wednesday. In light of the report tomorow, I wouldn't be surprised if they finished today. Note the swings in the futures today, looks like a nice top to bottom swing for getting straddled to me.

Good Luck,

Lee



To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (25800)9/14/1999 6:30:00 PM
From: re3  Respond to of 99985
 
Heinz, to clarify , if its not too personal, you seem to both poot and short the naz...do you have a preference or recommendation for the crowd ?

i have been sticking to poots, you can have more leverage, but, maybe its a waste of $ compared to shorting with a maximum pain plan of attack (say 5 or 8 %)

ike