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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j.o. who wrote (25939)	9/15/1999 3:20:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

j.o., you're remark about the Yen carry trade is hereby seconded. according to what i hear, many players have hung on to vast losing positions in the hope that the BoJ would come to the rescue by intervening. a completely wrongheaded view of where Japan is in terms of capital flows has added to this - interestingly, the Yen's rise is still viewed with a lot of doubt. the losses mount...and once the unwinding starts in earnest, the remaining gains will be locked in - these gains are in the stock market. some European funds are getting nervous too i gather...the view that the U.S. stock market is in an unsustainable bubble is gaining ground. since Europeans have pumped money into U.S. stocks like never before in the first half of this year, this is potentially very dangerous. regards, hb

To: j.o. who wrote (25939)	9/15/1999 3:43:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

j.o.: Thanks for the kind words. Regarding the lower band of the OMC multi-decade "rising" trading channel: A - If the Market were to begin a measured correction from current levels at this time, taking approximately 18 month to retrace back to the lower band it would result in a 30 to 35% overall loss. B - If the Market were to move down sharply from current levels at this time to the lower band say taking only a month or two, the loss would be more severe and would be in the 45 to 55% range. One would then cross one's fingers and hope the lower band holds...<gg> Of course, the top may still have more building to do, but I believe the risk to reward ratio is now large! Regards, LG

To: j.o. who wrote (25939)	9/15/1999 3:52:00 PM
From: Fun-da-Mental#1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

j.o. - "dollar deterioration vs Yen ... reason to consider long gold position" Maybe it's a reason to consider buying Yen or Yen-based investments instead. I think there's two different arguments that can be made. First of all, the argument you always hear: a falling dollar may hurt the Japanese economy, and gold may become popular as a safe-haven investment. But on the other hand, if gold keeps a constant value in real terms, it might rise with respect to the dollar but fall with respect to the Yen. Basically the dollar is falling vs the Yen because of economic recovery in Japan and economic uncertainty in America, so that implies that while gold might offer capital preservation, Japan might offer more opportunities for profit. Fun-da-Mental