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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teflon who wrote (29702)	9/17/1999 5:10:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

My portfolio is up sharply today as well. But all I can tell you is be very very careful. Especially short term options. Especially during trecherous October.

To: Teflon who wrote (29702)	9/17/1999 7:09:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

My guess, car point will be sold. biz.yahoo.com

To: Teflon who wrote (29702)	9/18/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: Jill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

In fact, I'm going to post Voltaire's post on the Q thread here to see what anybody thinks. I actually think it sounds reasonable. Others might think it overblown. But when huge $ is at stake, why not? marginmike, at first I was reluctant to respond to you because my views are almost always ridiculed and I don't need the grief. I view the market in ways that turns the average structured investor off. As I have stated before, the average hard working investor wants his investing arena to be one of a sanctified nature. In my view nothing could be further from the truth. There are certain axioms that I have cultivated over the years that have allowed me to be relatively successful as an investor. 1. The markets are manipulated by the large houses ( but not overtly so ) in order to protect their inventory of stocks. 2. Time not timing ( whether it be day, month or quarter is the most determining factor ( outside the Fed. ) in which way the markets will behave. 3. Even the best companies, MSFT, GE, IBM and QCOM work in concert with their analyst in order to enhance their own wealth at the expense in most cases of the average " back of the bus " investor who will always be the last to know. With the above in mine, it is very simple to conclude there are really only two forces in the markets we have to be aware of, number one, the Fed, number two, the large and I do mean large, houses. Outside of those two factors there is nothing for anyone to observe, anything else is totally incidental and only comes into play whether it be TA, Politics, Economic indicators or any other piece of supposedly valuable Bulls---, when one of the above mentioned parties desires it. Let's take them one at a time. #1 Manipulation - The Houses show their hands in many ways both on individual stocks and on the market as a whole. This week was a good example. First, one must understand that the reason The Big Houses don't pay $200 for QCOM is because of what - THEY DON'T HAVE TO! Now if the Big Houses don't have to pay that then why should they. Now every swinging D--- on this thread and anyone who can dial a damn phone knows about QCOM's recent earnings and the monopolistic nature of it's business, so what happens when the stock has gone up too fast and left some of the big boys at the station, the underlings will go out if they have to and bring the stock back down so the big boys can feed and the favor will be returned to some degree later, even if they make fools of themselves ( this is a very revealing part of my observation). A lesser House comes out this week and makes the damndest assessment of a company I have ever heard, QCOM will beat their numbers but probably will not blow them out and it drops 12 or so VERY PROFITABLE POINTS, for Christ's sake what in the name of hell do they say that for. Well, I think we all saw why they did it because we are sitting in the back of the bus with a damn good view. Now I want to skip to number three because it is extremely applicable to the above debacle. Do Houses and great upstanding companies work in concert - to all of you in the back of the bus, the answer is a resounding YES! If we go back and look, we will see how the Houses revealed their hand and basically screamed, QCOM IS GOING UP! Now everyone in the back of the bus knows what happened, the stock was mashed like a grape and the houses began to buy that afternoon and the next day our beloved CEO comes out with the news of no problem. Why is this important? Because we all know that it could have been said the day before. That is exactly what one individual asked on SI the next day. Now everybody and his brother knows that every analyst west of Harlem called QCOM and asked the proverbial question, IS THERE A PROBLEM? and got the dubious but LEGAL answer " Well Fred, let's just say this - there is no problem. So what does Fred do, he runs by the damn bus we are on and doesn't come out and say a word that day except to his superiors, damn it, BUY QCOM, I just talked to the home office. In the meantime, every poor soul on the bus is wanting to get the hell off and damn near did. So why would QCOM do this, because it is not a SANCTIFIED ARENA and it keeps analyst in the camp so to speak. I do not blame them but people must realize what kind of a game they are in. So, is there MANIPULATION in CONCERT, you bet you hard earned Texas Ten it is. The main point here is, all of this took place because they what? They knew the stock was going up and they wanted it at a lower price. That is why I decided to step off the bus that day and BUYYYYYYY! TIME, not timing is the key. Because the Houses Manipulate what do they use that cost them nothing? TIME. Manly time of the quarter. Have you ever wondered why April is also considered by most to be a bad month for the market? And how about July, and Oct. It is not because they are bad on their own, it is because they are the most manipulated periods during the year. What do all of those months follow? The QUARTER is what they all follow and that is why they are considered bad months. Most people on the bus in a bull market could probably get out of the market the six to seven weeks following the quarter and buy back in and quadruple their money. The Houses simply take any piece of news they want and react the most profitable way. A god example is this week with all the good news, what happened, they kept the market down because it is too early for them to let it run and they are still picking their winners. So did the god news matter? Not this time did it? So what did they tell us? THE MARKET IS GOING UP! Sorry marginmike, but you asked for my explanation. I am very tired. From the porch, Voltaire