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To: David Wiggins who wrote (7437)9/17/1999 7:30:00 PM
From: gdichaz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29987
 
David: I am reminded of the famous remark that J P Morgan was alleged to have made about the public's right to know, "The public be damned". Bernard Schwartz has been in tight personal control of every organization he has run, as best I have been able to learn. The idea that you can not teach an old dog new tricks, might just might have relevancy here.

I went into the Loral and G* investments knowing his reputation for playing his cards close to his chest - very close to his chest. But I thought the business and his management skills made these investments potentially good ones. I still think so. But the style is frustrating, no question.

Chaz



To: David Wiggins who wrote (7437)9/17/1999 9:11:00 PM
From: John Stichnoth  Respond to of 29987
 
Dave, I really agree with you in the most important areas--coordination of gateway readiness and handset availability. The "slide to the right" is undeniable.

Also, I've had the discussion before about future earnings. People tend to disagree with me on this, and I will quickly say foregoing current revenue if it's available sets a very bad precedent. But, there are times when it is the correct action.

The one thought that recurs to me--it may be a pipedream--is that they are looking at getting additional spectrum, from irid, dovetailing with additional preparation work in the soft rollout. More spectrum of course has to wait until irid finally gives up. (Note: Irid's demise or irid coming out of Ch 11 are both preferable to the present situation, from G*'s point of view). They wouldn't want to "prove" the market too quickly. And, perhaps they believe they can achieve that quickly. If they are in fact doing that it would be a huge signal as to their confidence in success and the size of the market, and would also greatly increase the potential return.

Don't get too down on our managers. They've really done an "A" job to date. G* is a remarkable technical and financial achievement to date. Now, if they can just GET THOSE HANDSETS!!! :o)

Best,
JS



To: David Wiggins who wrote (7437)9/17/1999 9:55:00 PM
From: djane  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29987
 
More Tero on global roaming

The view from Finland
Mobile merger mania - picking up speed?

By Tero Kuittinen, Guest Columnist
Last Update: 8:30 AM MT Sept 16, 1999

The new buzz around Bell Atlantic - Vodafone negotiations had hardly started, before
the merging of the wireless operations of AT&T and BT replaced it as the most
high-profile attempt to attain truly global mobile coverage. Interestingly, these two
possible deals highlight many of the hotly debated issues among mobile operators.
Vodafone - Bell Atlantic negotiations are chiefly aimed at giving Vodafone a national
CDMA coverage in USA. Vodafone currently has a strong presence in the Western
states via the Airtouch network it purchased earlier - now it needs coverage in the
Eastern half of the continent. Time is probably running out. AT&T and Sprint are
mopping up customers by offering nation-wide wireless coverage and bundling the
billing of mobile phone calls with long distance and even internet and cable services.
Nextel is still going strong with its own nationwide network. Voicestream has emerged
as the fourth contender for the status of a national wireless operator after it acquired
Omnipoint's coveted East Coast network. This means that CDMA, TDMA/AMPS,
iDEN and GSM all now have more (CDMA) or less (GSM) nationwide champions.

Where does this leave regional operators? If four digital standards are now reaching a
critical, nationwide mass - what exactly can smaller operators offer? Not much - and
that's why Vodafone needs to pair off its Airtouch network with the BAM mobile
network. Together, they would make up a second national CDMA operator and might
give Sprint pause. Separately, they may start to slowly wilt among the literally dozens
of regional mobile operators in USA. Whatever happens, Vodafone is stuck with one
intractable problem. The European-wide GSM operations of Voda are the envy of the
continent... and the nationwide CDMA network Airtouch and BAM fusion might offer
would be a strong contender... but these two standards are not compatible. Getting
competitive GSM/CDMA handsets to the market is a pipe dream so far - so
Vodafone can't offer international roaming for its customers... and may be stuck with
two third generation digital standards, one for the CDMA and the other for the GSM
networks. Not much synergy there.

Which gets us into the heart of the proposed BT-AT&T deal, which would combine
their extensive mobile networks around the world. The companies have invested in
TDMA in USA and Canada - and in GSM in European and Asian markets. And here
synergy is just around the corner. AT&T has commissioned TDMA/GSM handsets
from Nokia and Ericsson and should get the first models before spring. That will
enable the company to offer global roaming with a single handset. Rumors in
Scandinavia place the weight of the competing TDMA/GSM worldphones around 4-5
ounces and likely retail price below 400 dollars. This would clearly be a
satellite-phone killer in the business travel category. The new BT - AT&T proposal of
the Advance alliance puts their mobile operator holdings under one roof and seems to
signal clear commitment for the worldphone concept. That should come as good news
for Ericsson, which probably has the most to lose if its massive commitment in
TDMA-GSM hybrid models would not be enthusiastically backed by operators.
Nokia's position has been a little hazier, but AT&T has already signaled its intention to
use Nokia as a TDMA/GSM handset provider. The big question mark here is
Motorola's position -the company's TDMA/GSM convergence position has been
notably muted.

Even more important is this Advance alliance position: "Taking a common position on
Third Generation mobile and mobile Internet standards, to converge the TDMA and
GSM communities around a set of standards for third generation mobile
communications services." This concept of converging TDMA and GSM and guiding
the standards into a common upgrade path towards third generation technology has
been vaguely bandied about for a year or two. But the British Telecom - AT&T
alliance actually has the muscle to make it happen. Synergy benefits for these two
giants in purchasing common third generation network and handset gear in the future
are obvious - especially when compared to the difficulties Vodafone is facing with
trying to juggle its GSM and CDMA networks. In the short term, hybrid handsets
should hand AT&T a new weapon in its quest for better national footprint and mobile
data solutions to counter the early GSM and recent CDMA introductions of data
services piped into mobile phones.

Much before third generation technology finally arrives, there are intriguing questions.
How rapidly will the TDMA operators start purchasing mobile data "boosters" that
start molding these networks towards convergence with GSM? How will the
consumers respond to GSM/TDMA handsets next year? Is Ericsson's belief in the
GSM/TDMA convergence now starting to pay off - after being derided as a pipe
dream by many industry observers during recent years? Is this development blindsiding
Lucent and Nortel, which seem to have neglected the convergence story and even
GSM data solutions like GPRS? Can AT&T now hit back at Sprint by attacking its
Achilles' heel - the lack of a coherent international strategy?<TK>.

Tero Kuittinen is a Finnish-based writer with a passion for telecom stocks. The
opinions expressed are his own and should not be construed as investment
advice. Readers should assume that both Mr. Kuittinen and associates of
DeBry.com have positions in some or all of the securities mentioned, and may
change their opinions and positions at any time.