To: gaj who wrote (61908 ) 9/18/1999 7:46:00 AM From: kendall harmon Respond to of 120523
Robert Doll on NBR Friday night: <<SUSIE GHARIB: Our market monitor guest tonight says that investors are caught between a tug of war between strong corporate earnings and higher rates. We're happy to have with us, Bob Doll, the new chief investment officer for Merrill Lynch Asset Management. He oversees $250 billion in client money. It's great to have you and congratulations. ROBERT DOLL, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, MERRILL LYNCH ASSET MANAGEMENT: Thanks Susie. GHARIB: Well, let's start off first, where do you stand? If we had to put a label on you, are you bearish or bullish? DOLL: Well, you're trying to paint me into a corner I see. I would say concerned. You know, the market averages moved up nicely, but the average stock hasn't. So even within the market, there's dichotomy. This concern stems from the fact that more stocks are down year to date than up. And that's a result of what you just said, that tug of war. Both factors, that is stronger earnings and the rise in interest rates are caused by a better than expected economy. And that's where we are here in the US, and things are now picking up overseas. GHARIB: So what do you see between now and the end of the year? How is the stock market going to do? DOLL: I think it's going to bounce all over the place with continued high volatility. If the economy stays strong, I think the market will struggle. If in fact it weakens somewhat, that would allow interest rates to move down some and I think that would be the cause for a higher market. GHARIB: Let me ask you some of our ask the market monitor questions. We begin with a question from John Robel of Sarasota, Florida. Is now a good time to invest in Japan or the Far East? What do you think? DOLL: I think absolutely. The currency story that you actually started with I think gives the reason for that. Weakness eventually in the US and clear strength overseas to include Japan and the rest of Asia means investors want to take money from here and put it there and that's why the dollar is weak versus the yen. I think that will continue for some time and those markets should perform well. GHARIB: And how is the Merrill Lynch Pacific Fund been doing? DOLL: Been doing great thankfully, well over 30 percent year to date because of those very factors. GHARIB: Interesting. Here's the other question. The healthcare sector of the market has not participated in this year's advance, are the biotech or major drug stocks buys now. And that is a question from Paul Bussen of New Mexico. DOLL: If you have a reasonable time horizon, the answer is an unqualified yes. These stocks have lagged because of the rise in interest rates. And these stable growth companies tend to have a hard time when rates move up. The companies are getting relatively cheap. Pipelines are pretty good for the drug companies and I think the unit growth, which is a theme in the market will continue to allow those stocks do well over time. GHARIB: Name a drug stock or two that you like. DOLL: Amgen (AMGN) would be at the top of the list. Epogen and Nupogen their lead products continue to be very healthy. They have three or four products in the late stage development. Their rheumatoid arthritic drug is the most interesting of all of those. So, that would be a name I would be interested in. Pfizer (PFE), Merck (MRK) are OK too. GHARIB: Name some of the other stocks that you like and that you are buying right now. DOLL: Freddie Mac (FRE) would be a name of interest. Strong unit volume growth due to mortgages, stable margins, reasonably good control of credit costs. Any time you get that stock near market multiple, I think you want to buy it. Lowe's (LOW), the do it yourself retailer located in the Southeast. A strong play on everybody fixing up their homes and remodeling and making additions. Unit volume growth in same stores, new stores, modernization of old stores, another reason to like that name. GHARIB: Bob, what about IBM? Today Merrill Lynch (MER) technology analysts was some making warnings about IBM. The stock dropped more than 4 points. Where do you stand? Is it time to unload IBM stock? DOLL: The stock has done very well. So if you're well over weighted in the stock, perhaps that might make sense but I think it is still a good long-term story. IBM is transitioning from hardware to software and services. And as they do that, I think the stock will increasingly have a higher P/E ratio and the earnings in the meantime are pretty good, notwithstanding this hardware setback. GHARIB: Any other technology stocks that you have in your client money right now? DOLL: Sun Microsystems is a big position. We think that company continues to be at the front of everything going on in technology, including the Internet. Microsoft, hard to have a technologies portfolio without some Microsoft in it too. GHARIB: You said to me earlier, that energy stocks is another area where you have large holdings. What do you like there? DOLL: Exxon and Schlumberger (SLB) are the market leaders in their respective sectors and I think they will continue to do well as long as the price of oil stays higher, goes higher. It's up a lot, so oil may have had a run for a while, particularly if the economy slows, oil might stop going up. GHARIB: Real quickly, if there were a stock right now that you were just waiting for the price to come down to certain level that would you buy it at a bargain price? Name one stock. DOLL: I would go back to the Amgen. Great story, long term and great pipeline. I'd own it.>>