To: Winston Lee who wrote (24139 ) 9/18/1999 11:36:00 AM From: KJ. Moy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
<<Can you please elaborate on why you think BRCD's market share will go down? The market is clearly saying that BRCD is a possible emerging gorilla ... and it has 80% market share because the customers want their products.>> Brocade's current major OEMs/Partners are IBM, DELL, Groupe Bull, CPQ/DEC, Sequent, McData, STK, Siemen(sp), Clarion. Sequent, McData made up the lion share of their 20M sales in the 2nd quarter 1999. IBM won't have a FC SAN until late yr2000, Dell, DEC and others are not shipping any meaningful SANs yet. Dell's deal with BRCD was for private FC loop devices, not for the highly touted FC/SAN. I do not hear much ramp up with STK and DEC. Clarion was just on board and Clarion was just bought out by EMC. EMC has bad-mouth BRCD in the public. I'll let you be the judge on the Clarion front going forward. Ancor, on the other hand, has OEMs with SUN, HDS, MTIC, ADIC, Inrange, JNI, Prisa, CONSAN, Forfront, Netmark, Micronet, Intelligent Solution. SUN has over 50% of the current server market. IBM's own server farms use primarily SUN. SUN's SAN is expected to ramp 1Q/yr2000. MTIC is shipping well right now. The rest are not expected to ramp until yr2000. So, what do we have. BRCD sold 20M worth 2Q. Ancor sold 3.5M 2Q. The so-called 80% of the FC switch market is extremely misleading, probably hold true for the rest of 1999 though. EMC, DELL, HWP are expected to make their SAN switch selection before the end of the year. Stay tuned for the eventual winner. << How well do ANCR's products compete with BRCD?>> I see that Greg has answered it. IMO Ancor's product beats BRCD's hands down. SUN chose Ancor because of their product ability and their roadmap going forward. In terms of performance and scalability, Ancor's product is second to no one. The pricing of Ancor's product is among the best. Why, then, the market rewards BRCD with such lofty price? My opinion is that many who make investment decisions still don't understand what a SAN is and who BRCD's true competitors are. They only know that the SAN market is getting hot and they need to get in it. You may want to ask Fidelity. They own more than 3M shares of Ancor and these guys don't make many mistakes. Go listen to the CNBC clip on BRCD from Ocean_Joe's post. One of the fund manager asked if Cisco and EMC are their competitors. Like I said, these people still don't have a clue.