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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (26251)	9/18/1999 4:03:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee where do you get all this stuff...dreams???? gee whiz..wake up a smell the roses pal...BEAR Market??? sure...yeah...i know we've been in one for years... why are you so worried???? the good old USA is thriving like NEVER before??? now the World Markets are begining to recover nicely...Asia in particular had responded with incredible genius and strong will....the recovery is nothing short of a miracle... companies that were doing BIG biz in Asia before the collapse and suffering lost income generating biz, have now begun to reap those rewards of sticking and staying the course...even helping those companies as best they can... so NOW all of these major league corps will reap the benefits of their courage and foresight.... BEAR market??? no way...forget it...let the thought die...as i said to you 1-2 weeks ago..the semis rule the world...and their JUST NOW at the leading egde of production of new lines of chips and such that will thrust these companies and the corps they are supplying in to the sratesphere... Alan Greenspan is going to leave rates alone....i don't even think he;s going to move to a tightening bias either.. forget all the rethoric, trade the markets..and what they give you..it's been the BIG Cap Tech Stocks for 5 years now...nothing has changed.... stopworring so much...this market, and this life is nothing short of fabulous, and yeah..even J6P as YOU call him is reaping the harvest of the spectacular internet and computers and this wonderful productivity that has even baffeled Mr. AG himself... as for NEW purchases of machines??? they'll buy newer and faster and better each and every time to keep up with the competition or be gobbeled up like a little minnow, in a pond...oh they'll buy alright...bet your house money on it... LEE..i don't know how old you are..but i'll bet your young...you need to take ahold of your emotions..and look forward to an incredible life...invest for your retirment..in the best of the best..and laugh all the way to becoming a millionaire.. later...

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (26251)	9/18/1999 4:04:00 PM
From: 10K a day	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

'I believe we spit in the eye of the Fed one too many times and he is about to send us to our room with no supper. I may be all wet and the Fed may repo 15 billion in bonds this weekend for a Monday rally but I think they are sitting back and watching right now to see if we can just ease back on our own. The problem is when a few start drinking heavily and realize they are alone, everyone may decide to leave the party all at once. I don't want to be the one standing in the corner with the lamp shade on my head wondering where everyone went. Also if they do try to party like 1999, daddy AG may come home early and call the cops ending the party quickly and harshly.' ========= LOL..Lee..That Was Beautiful... Can I come to your next Party? LOLOL

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (26251)	9/19/1999 4:24:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Lee, Let me put forth the proposition that the last time the markets moved together was before the June/July 1996 sell-off. My research shows that this was the first example of the new-era liquidity driven market. The sell-off between the little puppies and the Big dogs demonstrated that the little puppies always feed on the scraps, the exit doors are too small, the sell-off are always exaggerated, and the Big dogs will always recover faster. I guess I got some Buffett in me and I'm the last one to argue the case for the tech stock valuations. However, I'd rather own a stock such as MSFT or even a CSCO with their projected growth rates than IP or CHV, or other industrial cyclicals or energy stocks. I noted to Robert the other night that I totally agree with Donald that we are in trading range with a slight negative bias. YTD 21 of the Big Boyz are negative for investment performance (about 1/3) and since 4/30 over half (35) are negative. This hardly represents the environment of a bull market. EPS for these 65 Big Boyz was a median of .98 for 1993 and 1.87 for 1997. Therefore, I believe that the S&P Index increase from 466.45 to 970.43 was totally within the world of reason for this period of time. I further believe it was the timing of that third rate cut last year by Mr. G and company that created the current valuation problem. Thanks to this issue, the market went up 26.7% last year, while EPS only increased a median of 10%. Bang, the severe over-valuation was created, going from about 10% to about 25%. Nevertheless, I have a real problem with the concept that last year our markets faced a problem because of the depression in Asian economies and this year we should believe that we face a problem because of their recovery. Thanks to Gersh, I've come to understand the Yen-Yank problem, but this seems to be a fixed income (interest rate) issue. I once, but no longer, had data relating to the percentage of U.S. equity investments by foreign investors and was surprised by how small it was. I have challenged the thread to produce some data to the contrary and have yet to receive anything to support a contrary position. I could go on, but it's time for a nap. All this aside, I again state that the current TA is not very favorable. Then, we have the big unknown in the potential evaporation of liquidity because of the unknown of Y2K. Berney