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To: Charles R who wrote (73)	9/18/1999 6:09:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 271

Charles, Re:"If you think this does not change anything and is about bragging rights then i suggest that you check www.pricewatch.com to see the retail (1 unit) prices of PIII-600 (Intel's current top speed bin). Selling at $596! It is a safe bet the even second tier OEMs are probably getting the parts in the $4xx range. Intel's top speed grade has not shipped at these ASPs in a long time. And, I say the game has just begun - AMD is only shipping in the hundreds of Ku range right. It will be intereting to see how things shape up in the next few quarters." Look you are making the assumption that AMD will be 1-2 speed grades ahead- I find that unlikely frankly. Intel will be at 733 for sure and maybe even 800 in Q4. No way is AMD going to be at 800-900Mhz in Q4. And then they have the Dresden transition to worry about. But lets assume that happens OK. Remember Intel with coppermine has SUBSTANTIALLY reduced its costs over PIII when it goes socket in Q1 2000. Coppermine costs in production will be in the $40-50 range. They can maintain margins at 50% by selling COPPERMINE at a $100 ASP and rely on Zeon/Cascades to pull up to $55-60%. For Q1-Q2 2000: I can see Coppermine-128's running in $75-100 range at speeds of 500-650Mhz. I can see Coppermine 256 in prices of $120-300 range at speeds of 667-800Mhz. So lets not assume that Intel is REMOTELY DEAD yet. And AMD will have nothing to compete with a Coppermine at low end. The coppermine-128 with SSE and 100Mhz bus will blow away the K6-2 and K6-3s completely in the low end leaving $50 ASPs at low end. So I wouldn't be too sure of Intels demise just yet. They could capture 80% of low end and 90% of high end next year. AMD has a decent shot at a double or triple next year but they have NO CHANCE at capturing much more than 15% of the total market next year or around 20M pcs. And they can only do this if they execute flawlessly. regards, Kash

To: Charles R who wrote (73)	9/18/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: grok	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 271

RE: <If you think this does not change anything and is about bragging rights then i suggest that you check www.pricewatch.com to see the retail (1 unit) prices of PIII-600 (Intel's current top speed bin). Selling at $596! It is a safe bet the even second tier OEMs are probably getting the parts in the $4xx range.> Charles, I don't follow prices closely. Are you sure that they are not just moving things down to make room for the various Coppermines which will be announced in 9 days?