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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cfimx who wrote (19926)	9/19/1999 8:03:00 PM
From: EyeDrMike	Respond to of 64865

its not about the past, its about the future, the internet, the technodustrial revolution.

To: cfimx who wrote (19926)	9/19/1999 8:18:00 PM
From: JC Jaros	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 64865

Hey, are you going to start pitching bonds to us? -JCJ

To: cfimx who wrote (19926)	9/19/1999 9:37:00 PM
From: QwikSand	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 64865

Twister: If you're looking for me to sit down in a comfy armchair with brandy and cigars across from the ghost of Ben Graham, and on his turf using his formulas come up with a defense of SUNW's market cap, you've come to the wrong guy. I can't do it, and neither, as far as I know, can anyone else, except with slogans about 'new eras' that make no more sense to me than the Mythsters' voodoo triangles and endless side-by-side 1929-1999 lists and ho-ho-ho's and "We CRASH on Tuesday". All of it's horsesht in one way or another. My question to you is: what do you want me to do? JC jestingly says 'are you pitching us bonds'. Well guess what: I'm in bonds, just like I'm in MSFT (which I suspect Benjamin Graham would look pretty much askance at also). I puke just like most people when I hear what Fleckstein calls 'dead fish' on Wall Street trotting out fantasy equations to account for valuations that can't be accounted for. Here's what I basically know and act on: 1) A 'new era' in stock valuation may not be upon us, but a new era in computing infrastructure most definitely is. Bandwidth changes everything, which is another way of saying 'the network is the computer' (plus a few other things).I'm no financial wizard, but I flatter myself that I know the computer business. Sun is proving every day that they are far and away the best computer company on the planet. Recent developments make me think that the rest of the industry is going to wake up one fine morning to find themselves playing a game of frantic catchup to SUNW that they still at this very late minute don't see coming, including IBM, including HP. 2) This means that I strongly believe that SUNW will experience sharp revenue growth over the next five years, even to the point of making current valuations look less insane to Grahamites. There is no logic to the market; it undervalues many stocks and overvalues a few. I happen to believe, based not on any dead-fish formulas or emotional states but on my own picture of the computer-communications-dataflow industry, that SUNW is less overvalued than other such stocks. 3) I firmly believe that Microsoft's days are numbered. The old roadrunner metaphor of the coyote that runs over the cliff but keeps his legs churning hopefully and doesn't fall until he looks down, applies to MSFT. It boils down to this simple fact: in 90% of cases today, if you're developing an application meant to reach any sizable number of users, and you're not Microsoft, you're going to think, 'Wait, why wouldn't I develop this as a web appplication?' It's that simple. That blows MSFT's model out of the water. Win32 is an asset that is already becoming a liability. They know it too. 4) SUNW does not deal in commodities. It deals in innovation. Not screwdriver innovation like DELL (which really is tremendously overvalued), but technical innovation based on vision. Let's talk again in a year or so and see what effect Jini, SunRay, Java et. al. have had on Sun's bottom line. It will come mostly in the form of increased server, storage, software and services sales, not in three-cent Java licensing fees. That's the idea. The complete solution that Sun is putting together is not* a commodity. You're kidding yourself if you think it is. That being said, a P/E this high makes me nervous, and IMHO anybody who is not made nervous by it is crazy, because it puts the stock at the mercy of too many variables, local and international, over which Sun management has no control. (In spite of the fact that SUNW has weathered recent volatility glitches rather well). But SUN has been one of the very best investments over the last five years (and that is not open to debate) not just because of "clowns" and "J6Ps" putting their poker money into it, but because its vision and execution is letting Sun take center stage in a major paradigm shift. Not the securities market paradigm shift that the Mythsters rightly ridicule, but an information-based cultural/industrial paradigm shift that is undeniable. I believe the market is to some extent discounting that position in SUNW's case. You phrase it one way "40 points of Java and Jini in the stock". I phrase it another way: "25 points of recognition of future pre-eminence in the stock." If you have to own a high P/E stock, SUNW is the one to own IMHO. I doubt somehow that will convert you, Ben's ectoplasm, or Buffet, and the Dellsters and MU defenders would probably sing their own versions of the same song. But that's my rationale and I'm sticking to it...cause in my case, I'm right<g>. Regards, --QwikSand

To: cfimx who wrote (19926)	9/19/1999 10:19:00 PM
From: jhg_in_kc	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 64865

TO ALL: I must admit Twister's post # 19926, which I just read, has some compelling arguments, which lead me to believe SUNW is fully priced and not a buy just now. Where is the great, future growth going to come from?

To: cfimx who wrote (19926)	9/20/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: cheryl williamson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 64865

qwik, what would you pay for a hardware company that grew its product revenue from $8.6 billion to $10.1 billion from june 98 to jun 99? Part of your problem in this analysis is the comparison of SUNW against all other hardware companies for a typical P/E. SUNW isn't a typical hardware company, because it isn't a hardware company. It also isn't a software company and it isn't an internet company. SUNW is a solutions company. DELL is a hardware company. M$FT is a software company. QNTM is a hardware company. YHOO is an internet company. SUNW is qualitatively different than all of them. Why?? They provide the whole enchilada, the complete solution. Furthermore, you DON'T know how much money SUNW has made from Java because they haven't broken out Java revenues. You ASSUME they haven't made money on Java. However, that is beside the point. The valuation of SUNW, at this point, is based largely on a great brand that has taken years to cultivate. To put it simply: investors trust them. SUNW has a good story to tell. Your TA doesn't take such intangibles into consideration, but if you had ever had a background in sales, you would realize that a great brand translates directly into increased sales revenue. You look at SUNW's current valuation like it's some kind of a shell game propagated by SUNW management, mainly because you don't understand the significance of the changes overtaking the computer business. That puts you right in line with HWP and M$FT: they can't seem to grasp the significance of the internet, either. Another reason for great optimism here on the SUNW thread??? They don't have any competition left in the server & O/S market. The closest is IBM. IBM is formidable and will compete effectively against SUNW, but between the two of them, there is plenty of market potential for both to share. I've heard recently that the internet server market is about 5% saturated. There's tremendous growth ahead for SUNW in just that one market segment, and no screwdriver company is going to stand in their way. One last thing regarding M$FT... The last time time anyone asked Scott McNealy publicly about how StarOffice was going to compete with M$FT Office he replied: "Who?" That reply was most apropos. The "great satan" from Redmond is an also-ran in the intenet age. The reason they have so much cash in investments is because they don't know what to do with the money. They don't have any R&D in the offing, so they're smart enough to realize that it's better spent investing in everyone else. Maybe they even own some SUNW (harhardeehar!!!!). For its own part, however, Sun Microsystems has bigger fish to fry. cheers, cherylw

To: cfimx who wrote (19926)	9/21/1999 6:43:00 AM
From: Mephisto	Respond to of 64865

[How much .com fluff has Scott&ED TV put in the stock with their press release business plan? How about $31 billion of .com fluff? That's right, the market thinks JAVA, JINI, and the STAR Portal are worth $31 billion. Imagine that bubbleheads. You now are the proud owners of a .com . And your saviors, Scott&Ed, has .comd' your future. You have $40 of .com in your stock right now.Essentially the Scott&Ed show has given you TEN YEARS of future appreciation, in two years. this year and last. No wonder Qwik told me to look at your posts! They are hilarious! Welcome back! As far as growth goes, I saw a Internet analysts tell Lou Rukeyser on Wall Street Week that Amazon.com was a very good buy. When would it make a profit? With a straight face, the analyst said, in 2002! Welcome back, Twister! Mephisto