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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dfloydr who wrote (51475)	9/20/1999 3:23:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

You haven't researched this very well, have you (VBG)? 1. What warp factors are present in the market place to explain this behavior? We go down slowly on low volume when we go down, but rise quickly on high volume when we go up. Translation: individuals sell, funds buy. See answer 2 for further info as to why. 2. The price of gas is way down. In a free market price reflects all available knowledge about a commodity. Therefore we do not have a pending gas shortage. True or false? We are building for Winter right now, so OF COURSE the price of NG is falling right now!! NOBODY on this thread predicted rising NG prices for this time period. Future price of a commodity reflects speculation, not knowledge. However, take a look at today's weather map if you REALLY believe we are going to have a warm winter. 3. We have a pending gas shortage but due to ____________ we are seeing prices plunge. Fill in the blank. Offshore drilling, which supplies 25% of the countries NG needs has dwindled to virtually nothing. Land drilling is attempting to compensate. Whether or not it can remains to be seen, but the recent dramatic in land based NG drilling is a clear signal the drillers think there will be a shortage. BTW, you are also CONVENIENTLY ignoring the price of Oil. Companies without hedges, such as TMR, are cashing in on oil prices as we speak. Go ahead, stick with the drillers and service stocks. They had lots of work this quarter, so should report great earnings (ROFLMAO)!

To: dfloydr who wrote (51475)	9/20/1999 6:56:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 95453

D. Floyd Russell, Since I am finished accumulating TMR... JUST THE FACTS: Here's the reason to buy TMR, and buy it big some numbers from last quarter: NG prod 5,728,000 mcf @ $2.28 Oil prod 1,120,000 bbl @ $15.87 Oil averaged roughly $20 for this quarter NG averaged roughly $2.70 for the quarter Insurance completely covered the blowout according to TMR sooooo I get +$4.6 mil for oil differential +$2.4 mil for NG differential or an extra 7 mil due to prices. we have 45 million shares outstanding, so we have an extra $.15 in earnings JUST from the differential. Last quarter they made $.03, so that suggests $.18 for this quarter. CONCENSUS IS $.04 WITH HIGHEST GUESS OF $.08. CONCENSUS FOR ALL OF NEXT YEAR IS ONLY $.30. THAT's why TMR is 70% of my net worth. NOTE: Not many EnP's get to take advantage of prices like this. Most have made poor hedging decisions which limit their gains. TMR gambled and won big by not hedging production. Most analysts haven't realized this yet. So, am I still guilty of hyping? :-)