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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51489)	9/20/1999 7:06:00 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 95453

Your numbers look good - $.18 - yowsuh! I'll buy more tmw. Spending the last of my cash. This one has a LOT going for it - technically and fundamentally. JMVVHO

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51489)	9/20/1999 7:29:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Let's run the same analysis for MEXP, to see if Slider made a good pick... some numbers from last quarter: NG prod 1,876,000 mcf @ $2.09 Oil prod 63,000 bbl @ $14.25 Oil averaged roughly $20 for this quarter NG averaged roughly $2.70 for the quarter MEXP has hedged roughly 45% of it's oil and gas production for this quarter at "not-too-great" prices (they wouldn't tell in their 10Q). I get (63,000.55$5.75) = $200K for oil differential +(1,867,000.55$.69) = $798K for NG differential or an extra 1 mil due to prices. we have 12.6 million shares outstanding, so we have an extra $.08 in earnings JUST from the differential. Last quarter they lost $.05, so that suggests $.03 for this quarter. CONCENSUS IS $.00. Still substantially above concensus, but it is easy to see the difference hedging makes. Both TMR and MEXP have other reasons to buy. More important than earnings for MEXP are the Blackfeet results and the Mississippi Salt Dome successes. For TMR it is the LOPI properties they are drilling - each one a home run.

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51489)	9/20/1999 11:43:00 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP--Did I read you correctly?---If TMR dropped $1.50/sh (30%) say, your entire Net Worth (including your equity in your house?)would be in effect down 21%? If so, you sure have more nerve than I do. TMR represents about 6% of my portfolio and 3-4% of my Net Worth in contrast. I like the story and the chart but I sure couldn't sleep at night with an exposure like yours. Not to criticize in the slighest but I must say "wow"

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51489)	9/21/1999 2:33:00 AM
From: in_outdaily	Respond to of 95453

JQP Thanks for the informative analysis on TMR. The numbers are impressive, and hopefully, a large upside surprise this quarter will get TMR off to the races. Bill

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (51489)	9/21/1999 3:33:00 AM
From: dfloydr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

John, I quite agree. And thank you for the numbers. To me and many others on this thread it seems evident what is going on with gas supplies. I have been counting on it and now have enough TMR to make a difference in my life if everything works out ... but the gas price has been soggy and that seems out of line to me. One wonders what is happening that is not evident. Or are there that many people who do not believe the scenario that is unfolding here. I can only think of two things that might account for this recent drop: 1. Perhaps a lot of gas was choked back last year to avoid delivering gas at unprofitable levels and now the spigots have been opened up a bit thereby causing a short term blip in supply. I do not even know if that is possible or whether it is even wise to choke back a gas well. 2. Perhaps there is some pattern of events at work ... maybe all hedging for the winter was completed ten days ago and hence demand has slumped momentarily. $3.05 to $2.52 in about eight days has to make one scrounge around for an explanation when the general assumption is that supplies are getting short.