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To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (609)9/23/1999 1:23:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4187
 
mact, this may be a classical bear trap. i.e., we are in early correction
or
?small bear market.
The market looks to the future ( 6 months ahead ) not now.
What does it see?

-no current inflation

but..
-steady pressures caused by
*rising wholesale prices ( they predate rising consumer prices).
*steady, higher,oil prices, going into winter.
*increasing wages: UAW won wage increase plus lifetime
work guarantee ( memories of Japan 1986? )
*increasing Health care. This will be big. HealthSouth, the
premier perhaps hospital chain in America just ditched all
their National HMO contracts: " not enough money".
Next step: premiums will increase.
*Asian recovery:more oil consumption

-Fewer workers:"want signs all over".Next thing-->higher wages.

-Increase Yen strength and reciprocal dollar weakness
*Japan is starting to cut fat V.US EL Presidente vetoed
balanced budget: visions of more tax and spend?
*Yen may become more attractive in future. Japanese
will stop funding out debt.We will have to raise interest
rates to pay for our big credit card debt/national debt.
*competition to our industry from cheaper Japanese products
from leaner Japanese workforce.
-Y2K fears
-" Fears of October Boogie Man".

I am still staying put and watching the horizon daily for
any sails suggesting smooth sailing,

TA @asTheMarketChurnsWithIndigestion.com