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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Slow&steady who wrote (26496)	9/21/1999 11:05:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Slow&Steady: You always need to describe the trend line of which you speak. I am not sure what you mean by "right at bottom", but the INDU did find support at a rising trend line intraday today, so far. To view trend line, use a 60-min intraday semi-log chart, connect the lows of the 9/10 to 9/16 and extend right. Regards, LG

To: Slow&steady who wrote (26496)	9/21/1999 11:06:00 AM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

If we begin the correction I've been calling for from here it will be a surprise to me. I believe we are just hitting another bump in the road today. Without the BOJ news, we would be up today. Volume is pathetic which tells me that most people are not jumping out windows at this point. Now if we had several days in a row of this kind of crap, it would be another story. My guess is that we bounce off of the support and rally hard for a few more days. I would be very surprised to see us begin the correction without a strong blow-off rally going in. Maybe later today I can do some T/A and post with a little more detail. Matt

To: Slow&steady who wrote (26496)	9/21/1999 11:54:00 AM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Upon further examination, I am quite convinced (in spite of the extreme bearishness on the thread) that this is a bump in the road. I am still calling for a correction, but the broad market needs to rally to an overbought position prior to the beginning of the correction. 1) I see the near term support for the DJIA of 10626.6 (intraday low of last Thursday) which we bounced off of earlier today. 2) The futures are hanging around -16 to -18 area having gone as low as -22 just prior to our low. 3) Tick continues to improve, and volume is extremely light considering the news and the day back after a holiday. Nobody is selling. 4) With the slightest catalist the indices move up but the general sentiment is tentative. 5) The media is real negative (analysts all morning long are negative) which is a short term bullish sign. 6) RSI is at 36 (42 on the S&P 500) which is not even close to the overbought area. Real reversals rarely if ever happen from RSI lower than 70. In fact, RSI is bullish. 7) Stochastics are not indicating overbought (32 and 45 for Dow and S&P). Actually bullish to neutral. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't find a catalist and rally this afternoon. Well I just got back from the kitchen having a quick lunch and I can see that the market is already beginning to do just that. I don't see much point in going on restating what is now becoming obvious. Matt