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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Matthew L. Jones who wrote (26500)	9/21/1999 11:54:00 AM
From: dclapp	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Matthew, a "bump in the road today"? I don't think so. Even with the dollar being crunched vs the yen, we'd still have those nasty trade numbers to deal with. And don't forget that only GE and IBM kept the Dow in the black yesterday. I realize that Heinz and others see a blow-off as likely, but I think a stairstep "grinding down" is more likely. Since LG is keeps pestering people to have reasons for their opinions (such a retro notion in this market, anyway :-), my reasons for this view are simply money flow out of the market and lack of substansial new money coming in to replace it. How much is going in/out and where exactly it's going, and the fundamental and psychological reasons for that money flow I'll leave to others (whew...this is a 'self-grading' post, right?). And I can see no good reasons for massive inflows into equities for the remainder of the year -- or even inflows sufficient to keep the markets at these levels. With the Nasdaq just now coming off historic levels, it seems that the giddy tech party-goers will be the last to leave, but "leave" I think they will. Finally, my "technician vote" goes to Raymond Bloch, who's convinced that the AD line and NH/NL really do count, and can back his opinion up with market history. doug