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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FLSTF97 who wrote (30089)	9/21/1999 12:51:00 PM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Oh, after market saturation the DRDRAM market only grows at 10%. I would revisit that assumption. The DRDRAM market growth rate will be a blend of the following market growth rates: Computer market (clients, servers) Communicatins market (switches, routers, modems, etc.) Storage market (NAS, SAN) Game market Home entertainment market (STBs, TVs, etc.) New microprocesor applications (autos, environmental controls, energy managment) etc. Don't you think 10% is very very conservative?

To: FLSTF97 who wrote (30089)	9/21/1999 12:56:00 PM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

So I'm really trying to find good ideas that make me believe the total market will accelerate and grow faster than 10%. one thing that has not been factored in is all the money your model shows rmbs making. at a pe of 10 rmbs could buy back 10% of the shares every year. the last shareholder standing would then make $450 million a year. :o) then of course rmbs could do something else with the money like investing in gorilla telecom businesses. ceo hinted very strongly at that recently. unclewest

To: FLSTF97 who wrote (30089)	9/21/1999 2:03:00 PM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

If you have 100% DRAM market share as I assumed, and if you believe that the DRAM market will grow only at 10% and you have 75% profit margins before tax, how can you continue to grow at 50% to justify a PE of 75x. flstf, too many ifs there for me. how do you establish a saturation point. i don't know how to look that far out. i put a quote on the thread this morning that msft had predicted years ago that 1 mb of dram would be enough forever. i have 128 now will probably get 256 next. the current forecasts are for 59% growth next year and 49% the following year. what happens after that? i do not know. i would not presume the growth rate to go down. heck over 95% of the world doesn't have a pc yet. as they are buying their first, you and i will be buying upgrades. dram using appliances are increasing as well. unclewest