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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RoseCampion who wrote (1798)	9/22/1999 1:33:00 PM
From: qdog	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 13582

This is a long and complex process that has to satisfy everyone around the world. The ITU is a function of the U.N. Carefully wording this so that what I'm saying is clearly understood, the ITU has a certain criteria it follows when it issues a recommendation. Note the word "recommendation". It, first off, is non-binding even if one is issued. Secondly, if you go to the ITU homepage and then go to IMT 2000 and lookup IPR <sorry I'm doing this in a hurry and I posted the URL in the "other thread">, they have three criteria about the IPR issue. One, the company waives their IPR rights, which makes the decision real easy. Two, the company makes their IPR's in a nondiscrimatory manner to parties that wish to use them. Which leads to three, the IPR issue can't be resolved and no recommendation will be made. So two and three are semi-linked. Qualcomm and Ericsson made up, which should have led the way for a harmonization process that satisfied all concern, CDMA One, GSM and TDMA. Enter the shot across Mothership Rotomola bow. You are acting in a discrimatory manner against a major telecommunication concern, or at least you can make a case of it. Also, you have rumours about China thinking the licensing and royalty is too high, etc. etc. ad nausem. Whether any of the rumours have merit, well for one that has followed this story for a very long time, we have heard plenty over the years. This brings many folks to a written conclusion in some of the more discrete technical journals (IEEE rag) to editorialize that 3G "may" not happen and that folks will go their choosen way. US doing it three head monster, Japan and/or Asia doing it's thing and Europa it's. How does it affect the stock? <Shrugging> How does any momentum played stock act when confronted with some bad news? Whether any of the bad news comes to pass, that speculation, just as much as it is speculation it will be good news. The fat lady has NOT sung yet. It's had a great run based on two strong Q's without 3G and don't think that it will change much if 3G doesn't become a harmonized reality.

To: RoseCampion who wrote (1798)	9/22/1999 2:54:00 PM
From: cfoe	Respond to of 13582

<<If the ITU really refused to endorse a CDMA-based 3G standard, or even delayed it past the end of this year, wouldn't that have an immediate and devastatingly negative effect on the company's roadmap, its Gorilla status, and ... its stock price?>> First, I think we need to separate immediate impact from long-term impact. Any news that "is" or can be interpreted as negative will have a negative impact on a stock like QCOM. We only have to look at what happened two weeks ago (seems like an eternity already). For long-term holders, the question is whether this will have a negative impact on the fundamentals of QCOM. My view: I think not, again unless the fundamentals change (e.g., like a new technology that is better than CDMA shows up). In fact, for long-term holders it will, and probably should be, viewed as another buying opportunity (remember the last two weeks). One thing I saw in thinking about your question was that we may be too focused on the cellular phone business as it is currently formulated. Traditional cell phones may soon be a declining part of the emerging world of wireless, digital tools, and this may occur a lot sooner than any of us can imagine. Meaning the game will soon include new players with new devices using the best communication technology available. Right now that's CDMA. Another thought. If Q is able to develop an efficient chip that works in both CDMA and GSM mode (TDMA I believe will be irrelevant by then), the same device can work anywhere, although it might be slower in GSM mode than in CDMA mode. Since I am not a technology expert (or even close) I am basing this on what I have read on this and other threads over these many months. If I am off base, someone please correct me. That's my view.