Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: qdog who wrote (1801)	9/22/1999 1:47:00 PM
From: Caxton Rhodes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

China ) Update on CDMA Issues Source: USDOC Commercial Service ) Kullman/Zarit Commercial deployment of CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) technology in China is still on hold. Reasons for this delay include efforts by the Government of China to decrease the licensing cost for domestic CDMA equipment manufacturing and to increase the amount of technology transfer from foreign to domestic CDMA manufacturers. On July 6, 1999, the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) and the State Development and Planning Commission (SDPC) jointly issued a notice, known as MII Document No. 612, placing the deployment and manufacturing of CDMA equipment under the uniform guidance of the central government and depriving all local governments and domestic telecommunications operators and manufacturers the right to negotiate CDMA equipment purchasing or joint production contracts. According to Document No. 612, MII and SDPC will take the lead in working out a strategy of trading market access for technology transfer. The U.S. Government continues to lobby appropriate Chinese authorities for CDMA deployment. The key officials at SDPC are Vice Chairman Li Rongrong, Director General for High Technology Industries Shi Fenghai, and Division Director Xu Qing. The key players at MII are Director General of Planning Dai Shuang, Deputy Director General of Electronics and IT Products Xie Linzhen, and Deputy Director General of Science and Technology Wen Ku. According to foreign CDMA company representatives, China Unicom,s Chairman and President Yang Xianzu has said that Unicom needs CDMA technology to differentiate itself from China Telecom. Unicom does not want to cooperate with the People,s Liberation Army on CDMA as the company possesses five MHz of its own with a capacity of 20 million lines (each CDMA channel takes up 1.25 MHz). Unicom is trying to obtain two more MHz to be able to offer 40 million lines by the end of 2003. Company representatives believe that the Chinese government,s delay in deploying CDMA is related to royalty payment negotiations for CDMA patents and to the selection of foreign partners for local CDMA equipment manufacturers. Company representatives explained that Chinese authorities want to avoid what happened when GSM (Global System for Mobile) was deployed in China. At that time, local manufacturers were unprepared for competition, so it took several years for them to catch up to foreign GSM manufacturers. Chinese authorities also believe that the technology transfer from foreign GSM manufacturers to local firms was too slow and at too low a level of sophistication. Negotiations between Chinese authorities and a major U.S. CDMA technology developer is one reason for the deployment delay, according to a Chinese official. SDPC and MII are using China's large market as their bargaining chip and believe that they have more bargaining power with the CDMA technology developer before China deploys CDMA. In contrast, large telecommunications firms can simply exchange royalties because they need each other,s patents to manufacture various types of equipment. Foreign CDMA company representatives highlight the importance of getting CDMA deployed as soon as possible. They are concerned that some groups in China,s telecommunications bureaucracy and private sector believe that China can "survive" with its GSM 900 and DCS 1800 frequencies until the arrival of third generation (3G) CDMA technologies. They also say that time is running out because China is concentrating on developing its own CDMA standard called TD-SCDMA, even though the technology may be less mobile and of lower transmission quality. On August 18, Jiang Shaobing, Deputy Director General of MII's Planning Department, said that China is concentrating its efforts on developing its own 3G mobile telecommunications standard and that China has decided to deploy second generation (2G) CDMA because of a frequency shortage, especially in the eastern coastal areas. However, the market for 2G CDMA technology will not be a large one. If 3G technology can be deployed in 2002, 2G CDMA will only serve as a stop-gap measure for two years, he said. Jiang went on to say that China wants to introduce 2G CDMA because much of the 2G technology is the basis for 3G CDMA. China seeks technology transfer, cooperative production and joint R&D from foreign CDMA companies. Any future CDMA project tenders, he said, will be open to all companies, not only the four firms now executing CDMA trials in China (Motorola, Lucent, Nortel and Samsung).

To: qdog who wrote (1801)	9/22/1999 1:52:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 13582

It's had a great run based on two strong Q's without 3G and don't think that it will change much if 3G doesn't become a harmonized reality I agree. The nice thing about the Q right now is that you can (IMO) buy it on current fundamentals (run-rate PE of ~50 for a co. expected to grow earnings annually at somewhere between 30 and 60% for the next five years), without everything being tipped one way or t'other by a bunch of bureaucrats. This, to me, is in stark contrast to the RMBS situation for example, where the entire market cap rests on FUTURE adoption hopes as opposed to a continuation of current trends. Instead, we can look at the current CDMA adoption rate. qdog, thanks for your informed "contrarian" views. G

To: qdog who wrote (1801)	9/22/1999 2:35:00 PM
From: bananawind	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13582

3G - the process continues and there will be a 3G multimode cdma air interface as the primary 3G standard. How rapidly it gets adopted and deployed by carriers is really the only question. ITU: ITU convenes meeting to fine-tune the final steps to common global IMT-2000 standard M2 PRESSWIRE-22 September 1999-ITU: ITU convenes meeting with key standards-setting organizations to fine-tune the final steps to common global IMT-2000 standard (C)1994-99 M2 COMMUNICATIONS LTD Geneva -- Standards development organizations (SDOs) have responded overwhelmingly to ITU invitation to meet in Geneva, 20-21 September 1999 to discuss implementation of the arrangements between them and ITU for the final preparation of the detailed specifications of radio interface standard for IMT-2000. Participating in the discussions were senior representatives of the Association of Radio Industries and Businesses (ARIB) and the Telecommunication Technology Committee (TTC) of Japan, the Telecommunications Technology Association (TTA) of the Republic of Korea, USA's Telecommunication Industry Association and Committee T1 as well as the European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI). The move follows the decision of participants of the Beijing meeting that ITU be the "one-stop shop" for 3G global standards to ensure that the radio recommendations for IMT-2000 meet industry needs worldwide, making maximum use of the work carried out by other team members through references where appropriate. The process calls for proponents of the different IMT-2000 radio interfaces to submit to ITU information of the detailed specifications under their responsibility in time for final consideration at the next relevant ITU meeting in Helsinki, starting 25 October 1999. "The fact that five of the six standards development organizations have come here in Geneva shows how seriously we take the matter of achieving the goal of a worldwide standard for third generation mobile communications" said Karl-Heinz Rosenbrock, Director-General of the European Telecommunications Standards Institute. "The most important thing is to all agree on something workable as early as possible to meet the market requirements and to safeguard interoperability between all major core networks irrespective of the access method chosen" he added. He was echoed by Leo Nikkari, Vice-President for Strategy and Industry Relations of the Universal Wireless Communications Consortium (UWCC), Kyu-Jin Wee who is Chairman of the IMT-2000 Project Group at the TTA, Akio Sasaki, Director of ARIB and Nobihiro Horisaki, Executive Managing Director of TTC who all agreed that the possibility of a convergence between all 3G proposals was now within reach. "It is the first time that the ITU and the regional standards development organizations are working together towards the shared goal of a common global standard for the next generation of mobile communications" said UWCC's Nikkari. "The various paths that will lead operators and consumers to IMT-2000 networks and services have been agreed upon and full convergence should be achieved in the longer-term if all players abide by the blueprint agreed within the general framework of the ITU" said Akio Sasaki of ARIB. The ITU has already received the generic description parts of the SDOs submissions by the agreed deadline of 1 September 1999 concerning the following IMT-2000 terrestrial radio interface specifications: UTRAN W-CDMA by 3GPP, cdma2000 by TIA TR-45.5 (being prepared by 3GPP2), UWC-136 by TIA TR-45.3, TD-SCDMA by CWTS of China and DECT by ETSI Project DECT. The deadline for submission to ITU of the detailed specification parts is 15 October 1999. According to the agreed arrangements, these parts will consist essentially of references to specifications available from the external organizations participating in the IMT-2000 work. The meeting in ITU discussed important practical matters such as timing harmonization, document formatting, copyright, publication and sales. The purpose was to guarantee that the cooperative working arrangements between ITU and SDOs/3GPPs would effectively and timely produce the expected results for final preparation and updating of the IMT-2000 detailed radio specifications. Specific consideration was given to the necessary conditions to implement the ITU one-stop shop concept for IMT-2000 deliverables. The meeting agreed on a statement of intent covering publication aspects. Participants applauded the good spirit of international cooperation among the different proponents and reafirmed the need to strenghten the existing cohesion around the ITU's process leading towards the successful completion of the global IMT-2000 radio interface standard. The understanding that emerged from the meeting is viewed as a key enabler to reaching agreement among all players. Technical note The SDOs participating in the Geneva meeting confirmed their compliance with the requirements described in the timeline for the radio interface standard. The original release includes a timeline graphic. To view this, see itu.int .html. CONTACT: Fabio Leite, Counsellor, IMT-2000, ITU Tel: +41 22 730 5940 Fax: +41 22 730 5816 e-mail: fabio.leite@itu.int Francine Lambert, Head, Press and Public Information, ITU Tel: +41 22 730 5969 Fax: +41 22 730 5939 e-mail: lambert@itu.int M2 COMMUNICATIONS DISCLAIMS ALL LIABILITY FOR INFORMATION PROVIDED WITHIN M2 PRESSWIRE. DATA SUPPLIED BY NAMED PARTY/PARTIES.

To: qdog who wrote (1801)	9/22/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: JMD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

three doggie bones and two bags of catnip for that one pooch! outstanding description of a very complex problem: it pisses me off but i don't doubt you for a minute: the fat lady ain't sung, the cdma wave ain't broken over the shore yet, and it's a mite further off than i woulda thought. don't like it, but them's the facts. or more accurately the realpolitik which is probably more important than facts in the telecom zoo. lovely to hear that partisanship is not restricted to the beltway. not. terrific post. thanks. surfer mike

To: qdog who wrote (1801)	9/22/1999 4:20:00 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

I'm curious what you think the GSM carriers and NTT Docomo would do if there is no "recommendation". Personally I think they are stuck....either they pay the Q or they try and institute the TDMA verison of 3G. My guess is that this is a bandwidth hog (otherwise they would have tried this approach all along). If they try and institute W-CDMA (without paying the Q) they will be tied up in courts for years. Meanwhile, CDMA2000 will keep trucking along.... Slacker

To: qdog who wrote (1801)	9/22/1999 8:56:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

qdog - You are acting in a discrimatory manner against a major telecommunication concern, or at least you can make a case of it. Also, you have rumours about China thinking the licensing and royalty is too high, etc. etc. ad nausem. Whether any of the rumours have merit, well for one that has followed this story for a very long time, we have heard plenty over the years. First, a caveat: I don't know doodly squat about international law, IP or otherwise. But I would interpret that to mean only that if you sell your IP to one party for $0.01 (and no considerations), you can't then turn around and sell it for something worth millions of dollars. Anyone know? Clark