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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (51628)	9/22/1999 1:20:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

slightly OT: Com Ed's nuclear reactors to become even less cost efficient. biz.yahoo.com

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (51628)	9/22/1999 1:49:00 PM
From: Ditchdigger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Douglas,Pretty sharp poster on the CHK message board,,gassman2 makes a good case for even lower NG prices. messages.yahoo.com "Hey Speedy, by: gassman_2 6164 of 6174 October settled at 2.427, not good. On access it was trading 2.425 when I left the office. 2.43 was an important number below that I see 2.35. Will it get there? I don't know for sure, however, the cash to future spreads look horrible. Cash is trading a good 16 cents below futures, not good. I personally think we will test 2.35. The big reason is the Aga. I forecast 85. Last year was 52. A build of 33, that would put us 76 behind last year. What does it all mean? Las year we injected 3.094 tcf in storage. Currently, we are at 2.67. Here's a rundown of last year Aga's: 52, 41, 41, 41, 58, 36, 48. For the rest of this year I'm looking at 85, 85, 80, ?. So the next three weeks should see a build of 106, that would put us 3 behind last year with 4 injections to go, not good. Last year was a record injection year, this year could surpass it. Bottom line, I don't see a good reason not to test 2.35. " ... "More info by: gassman_2 6165 of 6174 Last year the October contract was trading 2.187. At expry, it was trading 2.031. I don't think we will see that level. The main reason is that the backs are so strong. The summer doesn't to give it up. That's why we're still in a bull market. I know my last post was kind of bearish (short term). As long as the winter and summer are strong, I really don't care about October. I'm still holding Chk, because I believe the bull market continues. Look at all the summer gas fired generation comming up. It's unbelievable. Speedy, I hope this helps you out, Owl if I missed something let me know."

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (51628)	9/22/1999 7:33:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

buying puts in oil driller/service stocks: When oil was 10$, I was willing to bet the next major move was up, so I went long RIG and SLB and FSESX. When oil hit 20$, I wasn't sure, so I sold them. If oil hits 30$, I'd be willing to bet that the next major move, from there, will be down. It is really amazing, and a testament to the fact that noone controls (or even manages) the oil market, that 30$ oil is possible, 12 months down the road from 10$ oil. Few other industries do as poor a job at inventory management. Anyway, is anyone willing to discuss which puts would be the best candidates for a bet on oil going from 30, down to its historical average? I won't do this unless oil does hit 30$, in which case I'll consider it a sure thing. If it happens, I'm sure there will be lots of people saying oil is going to 40$. Just like the serious consideration people gave last December to the idea of 5$ oil. Markets always overshoot, in both directions, and this gives unemotional people a chance to make money.

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (51628)	9/22/1999 7:35:00 PM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

Douglas, Of course I remember the winter of 1977, I'm a weather buff,VBG. We lived near a small river that winter in PA, a few hundred feet across and average 1-2 feet deep. Almost the whole thing was frozen right down to the riverbed rocks with clear ice, you could plainly see the ice all the way down to bottom. There was only a trickle flowing, for all practical purposes, it was a glacier! Don't know why I didn't take an auger down to some of the deep holes, no other place for the fish! I'm waiting for updated La Nina conditions and forecasts, due out in about 10 days, to hone my forecasts. But besides that, a real Currier and Ives winter is on my list for Santa, and I've been good! VBG Roebear