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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (675)	9/22/1999 6:41:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T., i fully agree...there is still no fear, and all the stocks that still go up are now 'crowded trades'. when they begin to fall, it will be a sight to see. i don't buy the new era argument that what is working now will simply continue to work. if you look closely at the mania nutz sector, you will find that the secondaries which used to rally along with the leaders are all completely bombed out, it's the same effect as in the broader market. and i agree that it would be utterly foolish to ignore the weakness in the financials...ultimately, the market will follow the banks. regards, hb

To: J.T. who wrote (675)	9/22/1999 6:57:00 PM
From: Matthew L. Jones	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T., While I understand that you are rather bearish at present (and not all together for bad reasons), let me point out that while you are correct in citing the $TRAN and $UTIL are below their 200 day MA, the big five indices are not. $DJIA is well above, as is the $COMPX, the $SPX, the $NDX, and even the anemic $RUT is well above their 200 dma! While their are many reasons to have concern regarding the market-- breadth (highs-lows, a/d, p/e, etc.) their are some legitimate reasons that the transports are below their 200 dma. Both the utilities and especially the transports are effected by the recent spike in oil prices. And while the transports (which dropped below 200dma about the time oil spiked upward) have not confirmed a DOW theory sell signal yet (and many analysts who are much sharper than either of us raise some questions about the transports having the same place in DOW theory as they did when the DJIA measured production and TRANS measured the moving of the goods to consumers (i.e., production and consumption as in the CPI and PPI). As for the utilities, they are just now at their lower Bollinger band and it will take a couple of days to see if their support holds. While I have some legitimate concerns regarding the overall health of this bull market, I am reluctant to buy the bear case either. The DOW bounced off of its 200 dma twice now in two days, and rallied well both times. Investor sentiment is more bearish than it has been since 1996 which is a very good contraindicator. All major indices are well below overbought area in terms of RSI and Stochastics. I doubt that any of this will change your opinion, however, if you watched the tape over the last couple of days you probably noticed the steady accumulation of large blocks of stocks on every sign of weakness. This would indicate at least a near term uptrend in my opinion. Matt PS: See you at the expo??

To: J.T. who wrote (675)	9/23/1999 9:33:00 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

NDX 2,550 resistance is going to attempt to come into play out of the gate. We will soon find out if after this test whether she moves higher or turns right back down. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (675)	9/23/1999 10:43:00 AM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

DOW 10,470 first test is successful. DOW 10,410 in the balance as people getting very itchy to head for the narrow exits. Hanging by a thread here on the DOW. Best, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (675)	9/23/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

The NUT speculators obviously don't recognize the serious ramifications and urgency that the DOW and SPX is under as well as the fact that NDX has gone right back and tested 2,480 and still below 2,500 (2,494). IIX is still up and sticking its tongue at the market with no resemblance of fear. Notice SOX is beginning to drift toward SOX 530 (543 now)first initial support down over 1.5%. Nevertheless, the market is trying to put in a bottom. Will it be successful? Or will the capitulation commence this afternoon? Out til after the close. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (675)	9/27/1999 10:25:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

DOW Backtest and Update: Last Wednesday Sep 22 (MITA 675), I noted major support levels: On the DOW: ...<The DOW 10,524 is obviously one trading day away from capitulation now and within striking distance of taking out DOW 10,410. This will lead to a quick hard sell-off which should initially carry down to the 10,200 area before any bounce materializes.... iqc.com This was smack on the money as we breached 10,200 level twice on Friday (10,187 area)and then we bounced to close at DOW 10,279. Today (Monday) the market gaps up at the open and carries the DOW up to 10,402 intraday high only to fade into the bell and we close up 24 to 10,303. DOW 10,303 now sits right above its 200 day MA sits at 10,260. DOW 10,410 is now resistance and DOW 10,200 is support. DOW will now have this imminent test and take-out of DOW 10,200 as early as tomorrow but no later than the end of this week which will take us to this 10,050 dire support level I mentioned in MITA 675 last Wednesday: ..<It (DOW) may or may not be short-lived within the day, but ultimately will lead us one way or the other to 10,050.>.. With the seasonal "quarterly window dress in play" later this week, 10,050 could be breached but nevertheless should find a short-term safety net of support as it becomes quite tricky where the DOW will find a bottom before that bounce comes back to play. More on this as it unfolds. Best Regards, J.T.