To: AugustWest who wrote (10447 ) 9/23/1999 7:04:00 AM From: micny Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 20297
AW, Did you see this posted on the CKFR/Yahoo thread re.EPAY? EPAY from Briefing.com today: Bottomline Technologies (EPAY) 17 -8: Three quick notes about yesterday's after the close earnings warning from Bottomline Technology. First, there really is a Y2K spending problem for enterprise software companies. Bottomline blames it for their revenue shortfall. Other companies, particularly enterprise software companies have been whining about it, but it is real. What IT department wants to start a major new project right now? And implementing Bottomline's electronic invoicing and bill payment system is a major deal. Second, there really is a link between the underlying business of a company, and its stock price. Bottomline stock became "disconnected" from its underlying business pattern, and the stock flew up to $98 per share a month after its IPO. Ninety-eight dollars just six months ago! It was a trading vehicle, not an investment. But when the trading party is over, the only buyers around are the ones who want it as an investment. The lesson? If you like an investment long term, make sure you aren't entering when the stock is a trading vehicle. It is easy to forget this with many stocks (see Red Hat below) that just seem to go up forever. Third, it demonstrates the risk in technology stocks. Even if you bought the idea that EPAY's trading vehicle days were over, and it was now time for a long term investment in the stock, the price might have looked good last week. After all, the market cap had fallen from $1 billion to $250 million. Reasonable for a stock with $40 million in trailing sales? Obviously whoever bought it last week thought so, but they still get whammed with a 33% drop today. Cheap stocks can always get cheaper. The risk now is that, while the "hands-off-new-projects-because-of-Y2K" problem is real, it isn't the real problem at Bottomline. Revenue growth wasn't exactly spectacular throughout 1999. What guarantees strong revenue growth in 2000? Bottomline investors should be asking that question today, because at 4 times sales, it is still at the expensive end for enterprise software companies. - RVG