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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (23095)	9/23/1999 1:42:00 PM
From: DTselentis	Respond to of 25960

Im sure the estimates are going up and that will be a help but given the cyclicality and volitility in the semi equip sector --- I cant see cymi comanding a market premium ala Microsoft. It would take the return of the Great Depression to see MSFT lose 90% of its value like we just did not so long ago.

To: orkrious who wrote (23095)	9/24/1999 12:36:00 AM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Jay Re <<Most companies get a premium for having a dominant market position, ala MSFT, INTC, and DELL>> MSFT and INTC get a premium because of the large barrier to entry for competitors. Even if AMD hits the moon, they will not have the capacity to really threat Intel and they don't really have the finances to built them fast. MSFT monopoly goes without saying. Dell gets a premium because proven, large, sustaining growth rate. Dell has a small percentage of the world's market share, thus leaves a lot of room to grow which they are doing. CYMI is different. They do have a technical lead thus a decent barrier to entry. But komatsu and Lambda Physic do continue to try. Cymer growth rate is really dependent on the semi market and that is volatile and wall street does not like that. Assuming Cymer will not expand to other market and also assuming that ASP of lasers will not increase (they might) Cymer is already very expensive. How many lasers per year would the industry need during the boom time? At over one hundred 300 mm wafer per hour I would be surprise if they could sell much more than 650 of them per year. My estimate would result in about $2.50 per year at best. Mani