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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (8780)	9/23/1999 12:28:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 15132

RE: Efficient Markets. Good points. I think many of these books are good to keep the vast majority from over reacting to news. Obviously, Bob thinks he can time the market and many of his legions of followers will go with him. Also, I believe there are "pockets of inefficiency" just as we saw Justa exploit to his good advantage with his two-day short in the semicap sector. ANY linear system has lead/lag issues and the Earthquake news was a great example... Quake hits and people say "WOW! FABS will go down" so they sell off semicaps along with chip companies". Of course, a smart person says "we'll need more fabs to replace the lost capacity and to give second sources..." and the market sees this a few days later. What should have been hit are companies like Dell, HWP, IBM, Nokie, Vod, Qualcom, etc. that depend on getting chips for their products. (remember what I said about Apple and how it got hit from MOT not being able to deliver G4 processors in volume!) Chip makers will actually benefit as the supply is now lower and demand will go up....but chip makers went down that day too! I must admit that I just LOVE to watch and try to outguess. Sometimes I make an investment to take advantage of the inefficiencies and, so far, it has done well for me. For the professional trader Market Wizards, Parts I and II, by Jack Schwagger are well worth the money. Thanks! I'll pass that one on to the traders in our group.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (8780)	9/23/1999 1:24:00 PM
From: Alan Bell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

MrGJ, I am happy to hear your view on Random Walk. The book has bothered me because it has been tough to accept that markets are completely efficient. In fact, it was the reading of Market Wizards II that convinced me that it is possible to do better than the market average. The story about the Turtle Traders was most illuminating. I echo your recommendation of Market Wizards. It can be read at a number of levels and is interesting for the casual investor as well as the professional. For me, it provided a knowledge of advanced concepts and terminology as well as some of the thought processes of different traders. It was much easier to listen to market commentary after reading it. -- Alan