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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: digger who wrote (11280)	9/24/1999 3:04:00 PM
From: df	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

Got stuck at South beach again, and it's a year old, on the way to George C Scott, (BSEG).... It would be very convenient if AENTV, EXBTV, iNEXTV and TVW asked if you want to be on "e-mail list" for updating on programing, when you browse the sites. Don't ya think ?

To: digger who wrote (11280)	9/24/1999 3:26:00 PM
From: Hal Campbell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

Like most others here, I was thrilled to see tiny Ampex on CNBC. As I was delighted to see the aentv plug on Leno...pleased to see Bramson interviewed on CNNfn etc. Sure expected a surge ....But when I finally wandered to the computer today and saw the price....wasn't upset at all.....just laughed at myself. Maybe I have finally fallen out of love with the dream just beyond my fingertips ...AXC no longer an elusive and enchanting woman to me....just a stock - high risk.High potential..often interesting.....often maddening.. often putting the lie to every market bromide about patience..but just a stock. And as a stock...a few notes. Some numbers. First in general. They HAVE picked an excellent sector. Their approach IS extremely promising. They are briskly building what may someday prove to be valuable assets, and, learning each day, building valuable expertise.If the market never reflects that value....some company is likely to realize it and step in for a takeover. Money IS the primary risk. If the market or a financial partner doesn't bestow it, they will have to generate it internally or look for it in more debt, and,as we know., they already have a problematic bunch of that. The price? My argument here is that AXC IS a known internut already. What's storage worth? Things may get better....may( hope you are right about generated storage growth, Glen,)....but right now to say that storage is worth 2 a share is pushing it in my opinion. Without the wonderful royalty performance, it would be worth less than 50% sales. So with the AXC price at 3, at least a dollar a share is being granted to their internet businesses. Based on what tangible revenues? A half interest in 395 thousand from a company that just had its founder canned (probably) and appears to be in temporary (we hope) disarray ..and for now is probably shrinking rather than growing. At a buck a share that half interest in 395 thou is being granted a capitalization of around 55 million....or a price to sales ratio of 139-1. That's hefty. That's internut stuff. Now I know that was only a quarter's revenue ...but there is no way for the market to look before that 395 ...or for the market to guess what may follow. Now if that sounds too grim....if it sounds like AXC is fully valued at a price well below the level many bought the stock .. there is an upside. If they are being granted p/s ratios like that, those ratios won't go away all of a sudden. AENTV revenues, however slight they may be, should bring a small pop. Any demonstrated growth of TV and AENTV revenues in 4th quarter ( + maybe a smattering of iNEXTV) should bring one too. Then next year we shall see a full quarter of iNEXTV ...then quarters after that. The p/s may be an accordion from time to time, but...with growth... the fully extended moments of the accordion - stretching TANGIBLE revenues- should stay mighty wide. I think we are going up some this fall, but not to the moon. What everyone expects almost never happens. With a full year of GROWING net revenues under iNEXTV's belt however, our investment may get pretty fat in a year to a year and a half. The risks are growth ( in my opinion they can do that) and cash flow ( my guess is they will pull that off too) and our own frantic impossible dreams. Trying to think of a way I can hang on another 18 months here ... and in the meantine I will enjoy all the PR but will never expect miracles from it. We are participating in an extremely promising start up. With all the risks and potentials that always go with that journey.