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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (27142)	9/24/1999 9:31:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

GZ, How did your timing models handle the market last year when the major trend line when tested and punctured to the downside. In other words, trend lines fail, how do you know when? Isn't this something that can only be known after the fact, or hinted at by glaring fundamentals, so as the trade deficit and plunging dollar; not to mention inflation concerns as evidenced by the move in oils, and now the POG? I wasn't around last year, to know how each contributors "system" dealt with the crash of '98, so I'm curious.

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (27142)	9/25/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Respond to of 99985

Hi GZ Long time no chat .. My view for next week: OK .. next week. Fridays bounce will not go unnoticed overseas. Tensions about stock valuations will be relaxed. As a result overseas markets should go up overnight before our open. As a result of that there should be something of a flow of liquidity toward these overseas markets. (read that as the dollar goes down a little more) Our market drops a little more because of liquidity drainage. Tues, Weds, Thurs. Pressures: End of quarter mutual fund window dressing. Equity fund cash outflows. Buy the dippers believing that we've set a bottom. The market might remain somewhat flat to slightly up during this period of time as the factors fight each other. Strong upward movement during this time frame will carry the market forward. If the movement is flat to slightly up the bulls have lost. I believe that this time frame will be starting from the momentum of last week which will continue (down) Monday. The overall market direction will make it very hard for the next three days to be strongly positive. Not impossible .. butttttt .. Friday .. window dressing is all over. the only remaining pressures are: reversal of window dressing negative fund cash flows falling value of the dollar people trying to catch a falling knife For the week the critical factor is: Do the dip buyers come out in enough force to cause a reversal in fund outflows? This will be in place by 9/29.