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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (8798)9/26/1999 11:28:00 AM
From: B.K.Myers  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9818
 
>>>Remember I said this would be a benefit, updating all these old computers to faster computing power able to run high speed Internet connections. It's going to make business more effective and help the Internet grow at a faster pace.<<<

While someone might infer that updating old computers would make business more effective, as with any upgrade, there are growing pains. Programmers and users must be trained on how to use new features and workarounds must be found for any lost functionality. It will be some time before these improvements find their way into the applications

When I decided to start working Y2K projects about 3 years ago, this is one of the "Y2K myths" that I had to see for myself. I was hoping that management would use Y2K to help clean out the "dead wood" that exist in most IT systems. Unfortunately, it isn't happening. On the four Y2K projects that I have worked on, not one has implemented procedures to maintain these inventories. There were used once for the Y2K projects, then shelved.

I addressed some of the optimistic viewpoints in an earlier posting:

Message 11094567

Also, from: cnnfntech.newsreal.com

<<<...computer systems and applications have often evolved in isolation; corporate leaders often don't understand the technology they use, relying on "techies" who have different loyalties and who often don't talk even to one another.

Meanwhile, those dispersed and varied systems are tied to one another with ad hoc standards, roughly comparable to the different plug adapters used to make a hair drier work in a foreign hotel.

There often has been little oversight of technology departments within organizations. And computer departments have always been notoriously slow to meet deadlines, Kappelman said.

But the mammoth challenge to find the "bug" has changed all that, or least it so appears, Kappelman said.

Top executives are finally getting a handle on the technology they use. Federal, state and local governments are engaged in a long- overdue housecleaning of their technology, and the public is becoming acutely aware of the ubiquitous nature of computers.
>>>

Maybe Kappelman believes that the mammoth challenge of Y2K has resulted in a change in human nature, but it is not what I am seeing in the field. Computer systems and applications still evolve in isolation, corporate leaders still don't understand the technology they are using and "techies" still seldom talk to one another.

It seems to me that most Y2K projects set their scope to a size that can be accomplished on time while still trying to be "all encompassing". My biggest concern with all of the organizations that are saying they have completed their Y2K project (or will complete them by December) is; what did they miss?

My current client is still doing Y2K time machine testing and still finding bugs. Just this past week a Y2K leap year bug was found in our remediated code. This code was deemed to be Y2K compliant and put back into production almost 2 years ago.

The programmers and managers were confident that they have fixed all of their Y2K bugs. The remediated coded had past their regression testing and Y2K testing. It wasn't until we "aged" our data and started running Y2K time machine testing that the hidden subtle bugs began to appear.

In reviewing the code, I noticed that the problem program was using a window period that is different from the window that was being used in the programs that I modified. It appears that different programmers used different windowing periods to make the code Y2K compliant. Just another example of "techies" not talking to one another, systems and applications operating independently of one another and management's failure to grasp the size and complexity of IT systems.

Organizations that do not do Y2K time machine testing are going to have a lot of unexpected problems start occurring next year. I hope that they exercise due diligence in reviewing the output from these systems next year, but I wouldn't bet on it.

B.K.



To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (8798)9/26/1999 3:40:00 PM
From: David Eddy  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9818
 
Cheeky -

Remember I said this would be a benefit, updating all these old computers to faster computing power able to run high speed Internet connections. It's going to make business more effective and help the Internet grow at a faster pace.

I don't want to steal your thunder, but there were others at the dawn of Y2Ktime (mid 1994) who made these observations... particularly Capers Jones.

I've been meaning to ask Jones (he's one of the few software metrics experts... if you haven't read one of his books, please do so) if he's seen any evidence yet that Y2K activities have indeed forced/motivated/required enterprises to clean up their act.

Other than the standard new-is-better-than-old/PCs-are-better-than-mainframes blather, can you offer something of substance, svp?

Verifiable substance, please... not opinion.

- David



To: Cheeky Kid who wrote (8798)9/27/1999 2:03:00 AM
From: C.K. Houston  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9818
 
<Remember I said this would be a benefit, updating all these old computers ...>

Cheeky,

Looks like some may have difficulty, in ensuing months, finding new computers to replace the old ...

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ASIA'S READINESS FOR YEAR 2000 IS A GLOBAL ISSUE
Wall Street Journal - Sept 24, 1999

The impact of possible Y2K complications in Asia on the global supply chain is now a concern, following this week's earthquake in Taiwan and consequent worldwide supply chain problems in the semiconductor industry. Asia, a major high-tech supplier to international companies, is one of the least prepared regions for the date change, according to recent reports.

Analysts say some parts of Asia, specifically China, have released very little information about Y2K preparations. International companies such as Dell Computer have been working to ensure that Asian suppliers are ready for Y2K. Dell has factories in China and Penang, Malaysia, and has established numerous contingency plans, according to Dell Y2K point man Dave Cunningham. Although some areas, including Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, are considered prepared for Y2K, even these regions could be affected by the less-prepared areas.

[For educational purposes.]

SEPT. 24, 1999 (Electronic Buyers News - CMP via COMTEX) -- The massive earthquake that hit Taiwan last week sent tremors throughout the global electronics supply chain, raising fears that component prices will rise and many parts will go on allocation in an already tight market.

Taiwan, home to leading chip suppliers and foundries, dozens of chipset and motherboard makers, and many assemblers and passive-component companies, experienced widespread power losses throughout the island, and it could take another week to 10 days before volume production is back at many of these sites, according to companies and analysts ...

"It looks far worse than what companies are saying about the damage," said analyst Danny Lam, a principal at Fisher-Holstein Inc. "Worldwide allocation [of Taiwan-made products] is inevitable.'

The Taiwanese government estimates that chip makers could lose More than $63 million a day due to production shutdowns.

And it could take no less than two months before foundries reach their pre-earthquake production levels, said Jim Feldhan, president of Semico Research Corp., Phoenix ...

[It was really sad watching the spin doctors on the boob tube last night telling viewers that this dip in tech stocks presented an exceptional opportunity to get in at bargain prices.] Ron Starr
Message 11361035

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Electricity to Hsinchu Science-Based Industrial Park Fully Restored
Taipei, Sept. 25 (CNA) Electricity to Taiwan's semiconductor industry stronghold, the Hsinchu Science-Based Industrial Park, was fully restored on Saturday, according to park administration officials. Most of the silicon wafer foundry plants had already resumed operating at full capacity, the officials added [...]

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NEXT DAY: ANOTHER 6.8 EARTHQUAKE

Massive Aftershock [Sept 26] Brings More Death and Destruction to Taiwan - By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

ANTOU, Taiwan -- A further massive earthquake aftershock struck Taiwan early Sunday, bringing more death and destruction hours after a state of emergency was declared over more than 100,000 homeless refugees. The shockwave, measuring 6.8 on the Richter scale ...

Taiwan's Seismology Centre said the tremor came from the same faultline as Tuesday's devastating quake -- one of the largest worldwide this century and the biggest ever on the tremor-plagued island.

They revised earlier warnings to say that large aftershocks could continue for up to two months. Tremors of more than 6.0 on the Richter scale could be expected until two weeks after Tuesday's strike.

By early Sunday, 7,270 aftershocks had struck Taiwan -- an average of one a minute since Tuesday's pre-dawn quake [...]
Message 11364027

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TURMOIL IN TAIWAN -- OEMs, chip makers scramble for answers

Much of the confusion stems from the complications that often follow natural disasters. Taiwan's infrastructure has been pounded, power outages are widespread, phone lines are jammed and service is limited, and government and business leaders are busy providing relief to victims. Many are predicting that it will take seven to 10 days to determine the extent of the damage and assess the long-term effects ...

Given the amount of silicon being shipped out of Taiwan, many in the industry are concerned about the impact the quake will have on fabless semiconductor suppliers. One area that is expected to be hit fairly hard is the graphic-chip industry, much of which relies on foundries in Taiwan, said Roger Kay, an analyst at IDC. Other semiconductor companies and foundries also will be affected
because of the amount of time it will take to recalibrate manufacturing lines and return to full utilization, Kay added.

Some chip makers, however, said there will be only a slight hiccup.

K.Y. Ho, president and chief executive of ATI Technologies Inc., Thornhill, Ontario, said he expects Taiwan's production to begin again in earnest in about two to three weeks. The company also maintains a two-to-three week buffer of inventory in case of such an emergency, but Ho acknowledged that, beyond that window, there may be potential problems.

"We supply all major PC manufacturers, and that means for the upside as well as the downside," he said. "We have a buffer inventory in case of any interruption, so for up to about two, three, or four weeks, there will be no major impact for ATI. But if it's any longer, everybody will face difficulties." [...]
Message 11361452

WHAT TAIWAN MEANS TO THE ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY
1998 worldwide market share
- CD-ROMs: 34%
- Computer cases: 75%
- Desktop Pcs: 17%
- Graphics cards: 31%
- Keyboards: 65%
- Monitors: 58%
- Motherboards: 61%
- Mouse devices: 60%
- Notebooks: 40%
- Power supplies: 66%
- Scanners: 84%
Source: Information Interchange Inc.

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Toutfest alert!: Bank of America tout-fest -- "The granddaddy of all (toutfests)"! - John Graybill

Tech talk could keep sector buzzing
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Technology stocks could be buzzing next week as Banc of America Securities opens its 27th annual investment conference on Monday ...

The San Francisco meeting of technology, life-sciences, retail and other companies, formally known as the Montgomery Securities conference, is one of the biggest investment gatherings of the year. Two hundred and thirty companies are expected to attend, giving them the opportunity to talk to money managers about the quickly approaching earnings season ...

Semiconductor companies are also expected to generate some interest in the aftermath of the devastating earthquake in Taiwan, where many chip and chip-equipment makers have production plants [...]
cbs.marketwatch.com

Cheryl
95 Days until 2000