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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (8886)	9/27/1999 3:57:00 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

FWIW I just had a thought about how this market could develop far more into a 1976 pattern than could be currently expected. As we know since May the market has followed a rather remarkably similar pattern to 1976 as Bob has noticed, of corrections and returning to the area of the highs in the low 11k's. The final short term correction in 1976 was 9% in magnitude before eventually reaching the area of the highs for the final time in December 1976. If we see the current 9% correction as corresponding to the final short term correction in 1976 to keep the comparison we might expect to make a final test of the area of the low 11k's highs sometime in December. Now here is where I can see a major fundamental reason why we can actually see a bear market starting on the final day of 1999 just as it did in 1976. There is currently a popular buzz going around that we should see a powerful rally at the start of 2000 when supposedly all the cash being held back from the market due to Y2K worries will pour back in once it becomes a non issue. But I conjecture that the exact opposite may happen. As we continue to draw closer to 2000 we may get an increasingly clearly picture supporting the notion that as to US financial markets and major corporations Y2K will be essentially a non issue. The market being the discounting mechanism it is can start a big rally in December as a buying the rumor of no significant Y2K problem. Once however we hit Jan 2000 selling the fact may occur and if fundamentals otherwise continue to be weak we could be in a perfect position to start a bear market which would be following to an unbelievble degree the market pattern in 1976 leading to a bear market which started immediately at the last day of 1976 Marc