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Technology Stocks : PC Sector Round Table -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (1958)	9/27/1999 7:59:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2025

<A quick summary: They suffered less damage than initially feared. > Sounds good, but I wonder. I think it was an interesting scenario where things did slow for a few weeks. ASP's would surely have stabilized for some components, not disk drives though. I think I posted an article where AMD said they would be delayed introducing their new motherboards? Well, there will be a lot of pieces of the puzzle that have been over turned. I think the market was ready to shrug these possible problems off today. Abbey was out in force trying to get the little people to put their savings back into stocks. Hope she wasn't selling into the strength. Certainly there was a good B-to-B on Semi Equipment makers just reported. These SE stocks all did well. I sold some ESIO which is a strong buy signal for anyone following my recent transactions. I see UMC is spending a lot of extra money getting the lines back up and running. I suppose there must be a priority list among equipment vendors as to who gets the techs first. Anyway, when UMC reports like this, I get the feeling that they may be saying it's not as bad as feared. Still, these things take time to perk through the market. Will we have shortened supply, and will we see a series of earnings restated, although for very good reason? Only time will tell, question is how long? One or 2 quarters? What are your thoughts going into the end of the year? October a tired old scenario, or a tock that follows tick? I'm still buying Netro. Looking a little silly, but I think it will come out positive. Regards, Mark

To: Sam who wrote (1958)	9/27/1999 8:45:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver	Respond to of 2025

I just listened to an interesting interview on VCall. Analyst N Vallipuram on Semi Stks September 27, 1999 2:30 PM EDT Dresdner Kleinwort Benson analyst discusses Intel, Texas Instruments, Altera, Xilinx, and Analog Devices (INTC), (TXN), (ALTR), (XLNX), (ADI). vcall.com I don't know how long it will be available, but it's interesting. Obviously, it discusses the impact of the earthquake. Looks like there will be a problem, but not as much as feared. We should see a strong third quarter, but an impacted 4th quarter. Very good in some ways as it will reduce supply, helping ASP's. Look for supply problems in DRAM, SRAM, and Flash. They carry about 2 weeks inventory. This could be favorable for Cypress and Micron (my words). Is there a good Flash player with low exposure to Taiwan? Interesting thing about DRAM. With Rambus problem, what's the interim solution? The PC 133 DRAM will not likely make production as it is a TAIWAN product. Looks like there won't be a memory solution for the new Coppermine motherboard from Intel. Also, there is problems for AMD. So, expect the high end PC's to be impacted. Might mean the margins for PC makers will be hurt,